Fortuna Silver Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FSM Stock  USD 3.62  0.15  4.32%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fortuna Silver Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 3.66 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.08  and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.06. Fortuna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fortuna Silver stock prices and determine the direction of Fortuna Silver Mines's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fortuna Silver's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fortuna Silver's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fortuna Silver's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fortuna Silver fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortuna Silver to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Fortuna Silver's Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.58, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 6.38. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 309.8 M, though Net Loss is likely to grow to (109.6 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Fortuna Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fortuna Silver's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fortuna Silver's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fortuna Silver stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fortuna Silver's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fortuna Silver's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fortuna Silver is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fortuna. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Fortuna Silver cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fortuna Silver's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fortuna Silver's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Fortuna Silver - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Fortuna Silver prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Fortuna Silver price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Fortuna Silver Mines.

Fortuna Silver Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fortuna Silver Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 3.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fortuna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fortuna Silver's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fortuna Silver Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Fortuna SilverFortuna Silver Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Fortuna Silver Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fortuna Silver's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fortuna Silver's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.39 and 6.92, respectively. We have considered Fortuna Silver's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.62
3.66
Expected Value
6.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fortuna Silver stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fortuna Silver stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0217
MADMean absolute deviation0.0843
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0262
SAESum of the absolute errors5.0605
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Fortuna Silver observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Fortuna Silver Mines observations.

Predictive Modules for Fortuna Silver

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fortuna Silver Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fortuna Silver's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.263.476.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.142.826.03
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
8.199.009.99
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fortuna Silver. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fortuna Silver's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fortuna Silver's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fortuna Silver Mines.

Other Forecasting Options for Fortuna Silver

For every potential investor in Fortuna, whether a beginner or expert, Fortuna Silver's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fortuna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fortuna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fortuna Silver's price trends.

Fortuna Silver Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fortuna Silver stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fortuna Silver could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fortuna Silver by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fortuna Silver Mines Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fortuna Silver's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fortuna Silver's current price.

Fortuna Silver Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fortuna Silver stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fortuna Silver shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fortuna Silver stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fortuna Silver Mines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fortuna Silver Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fortuna Silver's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fortuna Silver's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fortuna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Fortuna Silver in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Fortuna Silver's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Fortuna Silver options trading.

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When determining whether Fortuna Silver Mines is a strong investment it is important to analyze Fortuna Silver's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Fortuna Silver's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Fortuna Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortuna Silver to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.

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When running Fortuna Silver's price analysis, check to measure Fortuna Silver's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fortuna Silver is operating at the current time. Most of Fortuna Silver's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fortuna Silver's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fortuna Silver's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fortuna Silver to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fortuna Silver's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fortuna Silver. If investors know Fortuna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fortuna Silver listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.254
Earnings Share
(0.38)
Revenue Per Share
2.855
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.611
Return On Assets
0.0139
The market value of Fortuna Silver Mines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fortuna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fortuna Silver's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fortuna Silver's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fortuna Silver's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fortuna Silver's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fortuna Silver's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fortuna Silver is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fortuna Silver's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.