Fisker Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fisker Inc on the next trading day is expected to be -0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.62. Fisker Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fisker stock prices and determine the direction of Fisker Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fisker's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fisker's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fisker's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fisker fundamentals over time.
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Most investors in Fisker cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fisker's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fisker's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Fisker - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Fisker prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Fisker price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Fisker Inc. Fisker Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fisker Inc on the next trading day is expected to be -0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fisker Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fisker's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fisker Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fisker stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fisker stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0053 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0444 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.223372036854776E14 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.617 |
Predictive Modules for Fisker
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fisker Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fisker's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fisker Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fisker stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fisker could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fisker by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fisker Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fisker's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fisker's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fisker stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 8.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 13.59 | |||
| Variance | 184.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Complementary Tools for Fisker Stock analysis
When running Fisker's price analysis, check to measure Fisker's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fisker is operating at the current time. Most of Fisker's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fisker's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fisker's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fisker to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fisker's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fisker. If investors know Fisker will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fisker listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.22) | Revenue Per Share 0.793 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 652.824 | Return On Assets (0.15) | Return On Equity (2.72) |
The market value of Fisker Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fisker that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fisker's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fisker's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fisker's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fisker's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fisker's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fisker is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fisker's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.