GATX Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GATX -  USA Stock  

USD 86.09  0.50  0.58%

GATX Corp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast GATX Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of GATX Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of GATX Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although GATX Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of GATX Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of GATX Corp fundamentals over time.
Please check Risk vs Return Analysis.

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GATX Corp PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. GATX Corp reported PPandE Turnover of 0.17 in 2020. Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to rise to 9.30 in 2021, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 6.18 in 2021. . GATX Corp Weighted Average Shares is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. GATX Corp reported Weighted Average Shares of 35 Million in 2020. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to rise to about 36.6 M in 2021, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (145.7 M) in 2021.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-10-15 GATX Corp Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast GATX Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest GATX Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies GATX Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current GATX Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to GATX Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of GATX Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in GATX Corp. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in GATX Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the GATX Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets GATX Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for GATX Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of GATX Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

GATX Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GATX Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 83.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28, mean absolute percentage error of 2.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 78.09. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GATX Corp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GATX Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GATX Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GATX Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GATX Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.1297
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2802
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0143
SAESum of the absolute errors78.094
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of GATX Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict GATX Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for GATX Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GATX Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of GATX Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of GATX Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
86.0986.0986.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
77.4889.4489.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
82.9188.0593.20
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
101.00105.00112.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as GATX Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against GATX Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, GATX Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in GATX Corp.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GATX Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GATX Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GATX Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

GATX Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of GATX Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GATX Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting GATX Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

GATX Corp Investors Sentiment

The influence of GATX Corp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in GATX Corp. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - GATX

GATX Corp Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on GATX Corp. What is your judgment towards investing in GATX Corp? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Please check Risk vs Return Analysis. Note that the GATX Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other GATX Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

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The market value of GATX Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GATX Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GATX Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GATX Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GATX Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GATX Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GATX Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine GATX Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GATX Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.