GATX Corp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

GATX -  USA Stock  

USD 86.47  0.42  0.48%

GATX Corp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast GATX Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of GATX Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of GATX Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although GATX Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of GATX Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of GATX Corp fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of GATX Corp to cross-verify your projections.

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GATX Corp PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. GATX Corp reported PPandE Turnover of 0.17 in 2020. Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to rise to 9.30 in 2021, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 6.18 in 2021. . GATX Corp Weighted Average Shares is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. GATX Corp reported Weighted Average Shares of 35 Million in 2020. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to rise to about 36.6 M in 2021, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to drop (145.7 M) in 2021.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-10-15 GATX Corp Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast GATX Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest GATX Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies GATX Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current GATX Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to GATX Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of GATX Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in GATX Corp. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in GATX Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the GATX Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets GATX Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for GATX Corp works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

GATX Corp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GATX Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 86.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.25, mean absolute percentage error of 2.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.79. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GATX Corp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GATX Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GATX Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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GATX Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GATX Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GATX Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 84.44 and 87.93, respectively. We have considered GATX Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
86.47
20th of September 2021
86.18
Expected Value
87.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GATX Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GATX Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.205
MADMean absolute deviation1.2507
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.014
SAESum of the absolute errors73.7925
When GATX Corp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any GATX Corp trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent GATX Corp observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for GATX Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GATX Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of GATX Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of GATX Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
84.8186.5388.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
77.8296.7098.42
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
84.7789.7494.71
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
101.00105.00112.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as GATX Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against GATX Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, GATX Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in GATX Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for GATX Corp

For every potential investor in GATX Corp, whether a beginner or expert, GATX Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GATX Corp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GATX Corp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GATX Corp's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GATX Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GATX Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GATX Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

GATX Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GATX Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GATX Corp's current price.

GATX Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of GATX Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GATX Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting GATX Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in GATX Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of GATX Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the GATX Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other GATX Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.

Complementary Tools for GATX Corp Stock analysis

When running GATX Corp price analysis, check to measure GATX Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GATX Corp is operating at the current time. Most of GATX Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GATX Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GATX Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GATX Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of GATX Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GATX Corp that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GATX Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GATX Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GATX Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GATX Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GATX Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine GATX Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GATX Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.