Goldman Sachs Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

GCIAX Fund  USD 14.54  0.03  0.21%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Goldman Sachs International on the next trading day is expected to be 14.54 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.07  and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.06. GOLDMAN Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Goldman Sachs stock prices and determine the direction of Goldman Sachs International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Goldman Sachs' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Goldman Sachs to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Goldman Sachs cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Goldman Sachs' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Goldman Sachs' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Goldman Sachs simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Goldman Sachs International are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Goldman Sachs Intern prices get older.

Goldman Sachs Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Goldman Sachs International on the next trading day is expected to be 14.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.06.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GOLDMAN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Goldman Sachs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Goldman Sachs Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Goldman Sachs Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Goldman Sachs' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Goldman Sachs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.91 and 15.17, respectively. We have considered Goldman Sachs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.54
14.54
Expected Value
15.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Goldman Sachs mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Goldman Sachs mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.4108
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.019
MADMean absolute deviation0.0677
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0049
SAESum of the absolute errors4.06
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Goldman Sachs International forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Goldman Sachs observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Goldman Sachs

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Goldman Sachs Intern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Goldman Sachs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.9114.5415.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.2414.8715.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.5014.5314.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Goldman Sachs. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Goldman Sachs' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Goldman Sachs' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Goldman Sachs Intern.

Other Forecasting Options for Goldman Sachs

For every potential investor in GOLDMAN, whether a beginner or expert, Goldman Sachs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GOLDMAN Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GOLDMAN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Goldman Sachs' price trends.

Goldman Sachs Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Goldman Sachs mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Goldman Sachs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Goldman Sachs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Goldman Sachs Intern Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Goldman Sachs' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Goldman Sachs' current price.

Goldman Sachs Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Goldman Sachs mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Goldman Sachs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Goldman Sachs mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Goldman Sachs International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Goldman Sachs Risk Indicators

The analysis of Goldman Sachs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Goldman Sachs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting goldman mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Goldman Sachs to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Goldman Sachs Intern information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Goldman Sachs' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

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When running Goldman Sachs' price analysis, check to measure Goldman Sachs' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Goldman Sachs is operating at the current time. Most of Goldman Sachs' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Goldman Sachs' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Goldman Sachs' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Goldman Sachs to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Goldman Sachs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Goldman Sachs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Goldman Sachs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.