VanEck Gold Etf Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| GDX Etf | USD 32.53 1.54 4.52% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of VanEck Gold Miners on the next trading day is expected to be 33.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.16. VanEck Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast VanEck Gold stock prices and determine the direction of VanEck Gold Miners's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of VanEck Gold's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Gold to cross-verify your projections. VanEck |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-26 VanEck Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast VanEck Gold's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in VanEck Gold's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for VanEck Gold stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current VanEck Gold's open interest, investors have to compare it to VanEck Gold's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of VanEck Gold is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in VanEck. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in VanEck Gold cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, etf markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the VanEck Gold's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets VanEck Gold's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
VanEck Gold polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for VanEck Gold Miners as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. VanEck Gold Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of VanEck Gold Miners on the next trading day is expected to be 33.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VanEck Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VanEck Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VanEck Gold Etf Forecast Pattern
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VanEck Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VanEck Gold's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VanEck Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.73 and 35.58, respectively. We have considered VanEck Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VanEck Gold etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VanEck Gold etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.482 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5928 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0202 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.1582 |
Predictive Modules for VanEck Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Gold Miners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VanEck Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for VanEck Gold
For every potential investor in VanEck, whether a beginner or expert, VanEck Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VanEck Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VanEck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VanEck Gold's price trends.VanEck Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VanEck Gold etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VanEck Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VanEck Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VanEck Gold Miners Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VanEck Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VanEck Gold's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VanEck Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VanEck Gold etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VanEck Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VanEck Gold etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VanEck Gold Miners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 923000.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (2.03) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 32.81 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 32.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.54) |
VanEck Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of VanEck Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VanEck Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaneck etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.25 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
VanEck Gold Implied Volatility | 44.39 |
VanEck Gold's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of VanEck Gold Miners stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if VanEck Gold's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that VanEck Gold stock will not fluctuate a lot when VanEck Gold's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards VanEck Gold in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, VanEck Gold's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from VanEck Gold options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Gold to cross-verify your projections. Note that the VanEck Gold Miners information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other VanEck Gold's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
The market value of VanEck Gold Miners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VanEck Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VanEck Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VanEck Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.