Genetic Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GENE Stock  USD 2.89  0.08  2.85%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Genetic Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 2.77 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.11  and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.81. Genetic Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Genetic Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Genetic Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Genetic Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Genetic Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Genetic Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Genetic Technologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genetic Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Genetic Stock refer to our How to Trade Genetic Stock guide.
  
At present, Genetic Technologies' Payables Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 17.50, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 4.94. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 18.6 M, whereas Net Loss is forecasted to decline to (11.1 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Genetic Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Genetic Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Genetic Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Genetic Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Genetic Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Genetic Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Genetic Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Genetic. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Genetic Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Genetic Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Genetic Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Genetic Technologies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Genetic Technologies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Genetic Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Genetic Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 2.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genetic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genetic Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Genetic Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern

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Genetic Technologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Genetic Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Genetic Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.36, respectively. We have considered Genetic Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.89
2.77
Expected Value
7.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genetic Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genetic Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.1119
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1098
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.049
SAESum of the absolute errors6.8065
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Genetic Technologies. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Genetic Technologies. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Genetic Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genetic Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genetic Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.142.877.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.112.216.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Genetic Technologies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Genetic Technologies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Genetic Technologies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Genetic Technologies.

Other Forecasting Options for Genetic Technologies

For every potential investor in Genetic, whether a beginner or expert, Genetic Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Genetic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Genetic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Genetic Technologies' price trends.

Genetic Technologies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Genetic Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Genetic Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Genetic Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Genetic Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Genetic Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Genetic Technologies' current price.

Genetic Technologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Genetic Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Genetic Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Genetic Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Genetic Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Genetic Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Genetic Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genetic Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting genetic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Genetic Technologies is a strong investment it is important to analyze Genetic Technologies' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Genetic Technologies' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Genetic Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genetic Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Genetic Stock refer to our How to Trade Genetic Stock guide.
You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

Complementary Tools for Genetic Stock analysis

When running Genetic Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Genetic Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genetic Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Genetic Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genetic Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genetic Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genetic Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Genetic Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genetic Technologies. If investors know Genetic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genetic Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.15)
Revenue Per Share
2.73
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
Return On Assets
(0.53)
Return On Equity
(1.60)
The market value of Genetic Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genetic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genetic Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genetic Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genetic Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genetic Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genetic Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Genetic Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genetic Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.