Griffon Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GFF Stock  USD 66.74  0.97  1.47%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Griffon on the next trading day is expected to be 66.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.66. Griffon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Griffon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At this time, Griffon's Asset Turnover is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. . The Griffon's current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 73.3 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is projected to decrease to roughly 46.3 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-07-19 Griffon Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Griffon's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Griffon's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Griffon stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Griffon's open interest, investors have to compare it to Griffon's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Griffon is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Griffon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Griffon cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Griffon's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Griffon's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the accuracy of the generated results.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1985-09-30
Previous Quarter
110.5 M
Current Value
123 M
Quarterly Volatility
83.8 M
 
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Covid
A naive forecasting model for Griffon is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Griffon value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Griffon Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of July 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Griffon on the next trading day is expected to be 66.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11, mean absolute percentage error of 2.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Griffon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Griffon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Griffon Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest GriffonGriffon Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Griffon Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Griffon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Griffon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.33 and 68.75, respectively. We have considered Griffon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
66.74
66.54
Expected Value
68.75
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Griffon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Griffon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.6833
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1075
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0165
SAESum of the absolute errors68.6625
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Griffon. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Griffon. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Griffon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Griffon. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Griffon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
64.5766.7868.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
59.8362.0473.41
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
51.6956.8063.05
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.221.311.46
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Griffon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Griffon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Griffon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Griffon.

Other Forecasting Options for Griffon

For every potential investor in Griffon, whether a beginner or expert, Griffon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Griffon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Griffon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Griffon's price trends.

Griffon Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Griffon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Griffon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Griffon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Griffon Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Griffon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Griffon's current price.

Griffon Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Griffon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Griffon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Griffon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Griffon entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Griffon Risk Indicators

The analysis of Griffon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Griffon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting griffon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Griffon Stock

When determining whether Griffon is a strong investment it is important to analyze Griffon's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Griffon's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Griffon Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Griffon to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Griffon Stock please use our How to Invest in Griffon guide.
You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Building Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Griffon. If investors know Griffon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Griffon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.07)
Dividend Share
0.55
Earnings Share
3.78
Revenue Per Share
52.934
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.05)
The market value of Griffon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Griffon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Griffon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Griffon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Griffon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Griffon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Griffon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Griffon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Griffon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.