PT Gudang Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GGNPF Stock | USD 1.31 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of PT Gudang Garam on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. GGNPF Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PT Gudang stock prices and determine the direction of PT Gudang Garam's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PT Gudang's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PT Gudang to cross-verify your projections. GGNPF |
Most investors in PT Gudang cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the PT Gudang's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets PT Gudang's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for PT Gudang is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of PT Gudang Garam value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. PT Gudang Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of PT Gudang Garam on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GGNPF Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PT Gudang's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PT Gudang Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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PT Gudang Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PT Gudang's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PT Gudang's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.31 and 1.31, respectively. We have considered PT Gudang's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PT Gudang pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PT Gudang pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 50.3381 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.0 |
Predictive Modules for PT Gudang
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PT Gudang Garam. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PT Gudang's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for PT Gudang
For every potential investor in GGNPF, whether a beginner or expert, PT Gudang's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GGNPF Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GGNPF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PT Gudang's price trends.PT Gudang Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PT Gudang pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PT Gudang could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PT Gudang by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PT Gudang Garam Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PT Gudang's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PT Gudang's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PT Gudang Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PT Gudang pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PT Gudang shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PT Gudang pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify PT Gudang Garam entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
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Complementary Tools for GGNPF Pink Sheet analysis
When running PT Gudang's price analysis, check to measure PT Gudang's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PT Gudang is operating at the current time. Most of PT Gudang's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PT Gudang's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PT Gudang's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PT Gudang to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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