Graham Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GHC Stock | USD 702.00 7.00 1.01% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graham Holdings Co on the next trading day is expected to be 701.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 551.66. Graham Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Graham Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Graham Holdings Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Graham Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Graham Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Graham Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Graham Holdings fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graham Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Graham |
Most investors in Graham Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Graham Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Graham Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Graham Holdings simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Graham Holdings Co are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Graham Holdings prices get older. Graham Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Graham Holdings Co on the next trading day is expected to be 701.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.19, mean absolute percentage error of 149.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 551.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Graham Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Graham Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Graham Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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Graham Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Graham Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Graham Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 699.37 and 702.78, respectively. We have considered Graham Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Graham Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Graham Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.2777 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.5064 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.1943 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0127 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 551.6581 |
Predictive Modules for Graham Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graham Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Graham Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Graham Holdings
For every potential investor in Graham, whether a beginner or expert, Graham Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Graham Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Graham. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Graham Holdings' price trends.Graham Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Graham Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Graham Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Graham Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Graham Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Graham Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Graham Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Graham Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Graham Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Graham Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Graham Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Graham Holdings Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Graham Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Graham Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Graham Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graham stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Variance | 2.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Graham Holdings Investors Sentiment
The influence of Graham Holdings' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Graham. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Graham Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Graham. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Graham can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Graham Holdings Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Graham Holdings' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Graham Holdings' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Graham Holdings' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Graham Holdings.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Graham Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Graham Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Graham Holdings options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Graham Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Graham Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Graham Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Complementary Tools for Graham Stock analysis
When running Graham Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Graham Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Graham Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Graham Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Graham Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Graham Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Graham Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Graham Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graham Holdings. If investors know Graham will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graham Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 8.161 | Dividend Share 6.6 | Earnings Share 43.83 | Revenue Per Share 951.687 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.097 |
The market value of Graham Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graham that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graham Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graham Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graham Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graham Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graham Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graham Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graham Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.