Guggenheim Municipal Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

GIJAX -  USA Fund  

USD 13.61  0.02  0.15%

Guggenheim Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Guggenheim Municipal historical stock prices and determine the direction of Guggenheim Municipal Income's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Guggenheim Municipal historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guggenheim Municipal to cross-verify your projections.

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Most investors in Guggenheim Municipal cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Guggenheim Municipal's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Guggenheim Municipal's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Guggenheim Municipal is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Guggenheim Municipal Income value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Guggenheim Municipal Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Guggenheim Municipal Income on the next trading day is expected to be 13.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.015147, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00040411, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.92. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guggenheim Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guggenheim Municipal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Guggenheim Municipal Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Guggenheim Municipal Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Guggenheim Municipal's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guggenheim Municipal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.49 and 13.69, respectively. We have considered Guggenheim Municipal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.61
20th of September 2021
13.59
Expected Value
13.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.2967
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0151
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0011
SAESum of the absolute errors0.924
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Guggenheim Municipal Income. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Guggenheim Municipal. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Guggenheim Municipal

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guggenheim Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Guggenheim Municipal in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
13.5113.6113.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.5213.6213.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guggenheim Municipal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guggenheim Municipal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guggenheim Municipal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Guggenheim Municipal.

Other Forecasting Options for Guggenheim Municipal

For every potential investor in Guggenheim, whether a beginner or expert, Guggenheim Municipal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guggenheim Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guggenheim. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guggenheim Municipal's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guggenheim Municipal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guggenheim Municipal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Guggenheim Municipal Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Guggenheim Municipal's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Guggenheim Municipal's current price.

Guggenheim Municipal Risk Indicators

The analysis of Guggenheim Municipal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guggenheim Municipal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Guggenheim Municipal stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Guggenheim Municipal without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guggenheim Municipal to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Guggenheim Municipal information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guggenheim Municipal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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When running Guggenheim Municipal price analysis, check to measure Guggenheim Municipal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guggenheim Municipal is operating at the current time. Most of Guggenheim Municipal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guggenheim Municipal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guggenheim Municipal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guggenheim Municipal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Guggenheim Municipal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Guggenheim Municipal value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guggenheim Municipal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.