Guggenheim Large Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

GILCX Fund  USD 46.65  0.73  1.59%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Guggenheim Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 46.30 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.27  and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.81. Guggenheim Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Guggenheim Large stock prices and determine the direction of Guggenheim Large Cap's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Guggenheim Large's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guggenheim Large to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Guggenheim Large cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Guggenheim Large's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Guggenheim Large's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Guggenheim Large Cap is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Guggenheim Large 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Guggenheim Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 46.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guggenheim Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guggenheim Large's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Guggenheim Large Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Guggenheim Large Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Guggenheim Large's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guggenheim Large's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.68 and 46.91, respectively. We have considered Guggenheim Large's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
46.65
46.30
Expected Value
46.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guggenheim Large mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guggenheim Large mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.4271
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1558
MADMean absolute deviation0.2725
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0062
SAESum of the absolute errors15.805
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Guggenheim Large. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Guggenheim Large Cap and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Guggenheim Large

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guggenheim Large Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Large's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
46.0446.6547.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
42.9543.5651.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
45.5146.1846.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guggenheim Large. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guggenheim Large's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guggenheim Large's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Guggenheim Large Cap.

Other Forecasting Options for Guggenheim Large

For every potential investor in Guggenheim, whether a beginner or expert, Guggenheim Large's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guggenheim Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guggenheim. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guggenheim Large's price trends.

Guggenheim Large Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guggenheim Large mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guggenheim Large could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guggenheim Large by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Guggenheim Large Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Guggenheim Large's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Guggenheim Large's current price.

Guggenheim Large Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Guggenheim Large mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Guggenheim Large shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Guggenheim Large mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Guggenheim Large Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Guggenheim Large Risk Indicators

The analysis of Guggenheim Large's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guggenheim Large's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting guggenheim mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guggenheim Large to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Guggenheim Large Cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guggenheim Large's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

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When running Guggenheim Large's price analysis, check to measure Guggenheim Large's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guggenheim Large is operating at the current time. Most of Guggenheim Large's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guggenheim Large's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guggenheim Large's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guggenheim Large to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Guggenheim Large's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Guggenheim Large is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guggenheim Large's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.