Guggenheim Limited Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

GILFX -  USA Fund  

USD 25.46  0.000001  0.00%

Guggenheim Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Guggenheim Limited historical stock prices and determine the direction of Guggenheim Limited Duration's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Guggenheim Limited historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Risk vs Return Analysis.

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Most investors in Guggenheim Limited cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Guggenheim Limited's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Guggenheim Limited's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Guggenheim Limited is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Guggenheim Limited Duration value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Guggenheim Limited Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Guggenheim Limited Duration on the next trading day is expected to be 25.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0092, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00015029, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.56. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guggenheim Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guggenheim Limited's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Guggenheim Limited Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guggenheim Limited mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guggenheim Limited mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.3075
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0092
MAPEMean absolute percentage error4.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors0.5612
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Guggenheim Limited Duration. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Guggenheim Limited. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Guggenheim Limited

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guggenheim Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Limited's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Guggenheim Limited in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
25.4125.4625.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
25.4125.4625.51
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
25.4525.4625.48
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guggenheim Limited. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guggenheim Limited's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guggenheim Limited's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Guggenheim Limited.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guggenheim Limited mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guggenheim Limited could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guggenheim Limited by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Guggenheim Limited Risk Indicators

The analysis of Guggenheim Limited's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guggenheim Limited's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Guggenheim Limited stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Guggenheim Limited Investors Sentiment

The influence of Guggenheim Limited's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Guggenheim. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - GILFX

Guggenheim Limited Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are indifferent in their judgment towards investing in Guggenheim Limited Duration. What is your judgment towards investing in Guggenheim Limited Duration? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Please check Risk vs Return Analysis. Note that the Guggenheim Limited information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guggenheim Limited's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fund Screener module to find activelly-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.

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When running Guggenheim Limited price analysis, check to measure Guggenheim Limited's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guggenheim Limited is operating at the current time. Most of Guggenheim Limited's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guggenheim Limited's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guggenheim Limited's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guggenheim Limited to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Guggenheim Limited's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Guggenheim Limited value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guggenheim Limited's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.