Guggenheim Macro Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

GIOCX -  USA Fund  

USD 27.26  0.01  0.0367%

Guggenheim Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Guggenheim Macro historical stock prices and determine the direction of Guggenheim Macro Opportunities's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Guggenheim Macro historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guggenheim Macro to cross-verify your projections.

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Most investors in Guggenheim Macro cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Guggenheim Macro's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Guggenheim Macro's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Guggenheim Macro is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Guggenheim Macro Opportunities value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Guggenheim Macro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Guggenheim Macro Opportunities on the next trading day is expected to be 27.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.015437, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004207, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.94. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guggenheim Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guggenheim Macro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Guggenheim Macro Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Guggenheim Macro Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Guggenheim Macro's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guggenheim Macro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.19 and 27.32, respectively. We have considered Guggenheim Macro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.26
21st of September 2021
27.26
Expected Value
27.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guggenheim Macro mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guggenheim Macro mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.3369
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0154
MAPEMean absolute percentage error6.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors0.9416
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Guggenheim Macro Opportunities. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Guggenheim Macro. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Guggenheim Macro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guggenheim Macro Opp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Macro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Guggenheim Macro in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
27.2027.2627.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
27.2027.2627.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
27.2527.2627.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guggenheim Macro. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guggenheim Macro's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guggenheim Macro's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Guggenheim Macro Opp.

Other Forecasting Options for Guggenheim Macro

For every potential investor in Guggenheim, whether a beginner or expert, Guggenheim Macro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guggenheim Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guggenheim. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guggenheim Macro's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guggenheim Macro mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guggenheim Macro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guggenheim Macro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Guggenheim Macro Opp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Guggenheim Macro's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Guggenheim Macro's current price.

Guggenheim Macro Risk Indicators

The analysis of Guggenheim Macro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guggenheim Macro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Guggenheim Macro stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Guggenheim Macro Investors Sentiment

The influence of Guggenheim Macro's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Guggenheim. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - GIOCX

Guggenheim Macro Opp Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are indifferent in their judgment towards investing in Guggenheim Macro Opportunities. What is your judgment towards investing in Guggenheim Macro Opportunities? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guggenheim Macro to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Guggenheim Macro Opp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guggenheim Macro's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

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When running Guggenheim Macro Opp price analysis, check to measure Guggenheim Macro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guggenheim Macro is operating at the current time. Most of Guggenheim Macro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guggenheim Macro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guggenheim Macro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guggenheim Macro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Guggenheim Macro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Guggenheim Macro value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guggenheim Macro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.