Guggenheim Macro Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Moving Average

GIOSX
 Fund
  

USD 24.79  0.12  0.48%   

Guggenheim Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Guggenheim Macro historical stock prices and determine the direction of Guggenheim Macro Opportunities's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Guggenheim Macro historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guggenheim Macro to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Guggenheim Macro cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Guggenheim Macro's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Guggenheim Macro's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Guggenheim Macro is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Guggenheim Macro Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 8th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Guggenheim Macro Opportunities on the next trading day is expected to be 24.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.010069, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guggenheim Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guggenheim Macro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Guggenheim Macro Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Guggenheim MacroGuggenheim Macro Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Guggenheim Macro Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Guggenheim Macro's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guggenheim Macro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.45 and 25.13, respectively. We have considered Guggenheim Macro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 24.79
24.79
Expected Value
25.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guggenheim Macro mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guggenheim Macro mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.8365
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0031
MADMean absolute deviation0.0732
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.003
SAESum of the absolute errors4.32
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Guggenheim Macro Opportunities price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Guggenheim Macro. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Guggenheim Macro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guggenheim Macro Opp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Macro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Guggenheim Macro in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
24.4524.7925.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
24.3424.6825.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
23.8224.4425.06
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guggenheim Macro. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guggenheim Macro's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guggenheim Macro's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Guggenheim Macro Opp.

Other Forecasting Options for Guggenheim Macro

For every potential investor in Guggenheim, whether a beginner or expert, Guggenheim Macro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guggenheim Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guggenheim. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guggenheim Macro's price trends.

Guggenheim Macro Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guggenheim Macro mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guggenheim Macro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guggenheim Macro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Alcoa CorpAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone IncCVS CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational BusinessIntel CorpMetlifeATT IncTarget Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Guggenheim Macro Opp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Guggenheim Macro's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Guggenheim Macro's current price.

Guggenheim Macro Risk Indicators

The analysis of Guggenheim Macro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guggenheim Macro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Guggenheim Macro stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Guggenheim Macro Investors Sentiment

The influence of Guggenheim Macro's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Guggenheim. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Guggenheim Macro in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Guggenheim Macro's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Guggenheim Macro options trading.

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Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Guggenheim Macro Opp using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guggenheim Macro to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Guggenheim Macro Opp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guggenheim Macro's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for Guggenheim Mutual Fund analysis

When running Guggenheim Macro Opp price analysis, check to measure Guggenheim Macro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guggenheim Macro is operating at the current time. Most of Guggenheim Macro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guggenheim Macro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guggenheim Macro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guggenheim Macro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Guggenheim Macro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Guggenheim Macro value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guggenheim Macro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.