Gamestop Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GME
 Stock
  

USD 40.02  0.35  0.87%   

Gamestop Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Gamestop Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Gamestop Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Gamestop Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Gamestop Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Gamestop Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Gamestop Corp fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gamestop Corp to cross-verify your projections.
  
Gamestop Corp Inventory Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Inventory Turnover was at 6.15. The current year Cash and Equivalents Turnover is expected to grow to 12.86, whereas Accounts Payable Turnover is forecasted to decline to 14.62. . Gamestop Corp Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 290.4 Million.
Most investors in Gamestop Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Gamestop Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Gamestop Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Gamestop Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Gamestop Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Gamestop Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gamestop Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 40.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89, mean absolute percentage error of 5.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 117.39.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gamestop Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gamestop Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gamestop Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Gamestop CorpGamestop Corp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Gamestop Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gamestop Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gamestop Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.01 and 47.78, respectively. We have considered Gamestop Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 40.02
40.89
Expected Value
47.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gamestop Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gamestop Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.6283
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.8934
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0597
SAESum of the absolute errors117.39
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Gamestop Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Gamestop Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Gamestop Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gamestop Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gamestop Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Gamestop Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
26.5133.4344.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
38.4045.3252.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
30.3336.0341.73
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0055.75145.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Gamestop Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Gamestop Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Gamestop Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Gamestop Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Gamestop Corp

For every potential investor in Gamestop, whether a beginner or expert, Gamestop Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gamestop Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gamestop. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gamestop Corp's price trends.

Gamestop Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gamestop Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gamestop Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gamestop Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Build-A-Bear WorkshopKar Auction Services3M CompanyMerck CompanyCaterpillarThe Travelers CompaniesHome DepotJohnson JohnsonVerizon CommunicationsProcter GambleAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroup
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gamestop Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gamestop Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gamestop Corp's current price.

Gamestop Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gamestop Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gamestop Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Gamestop Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Gamestop Corp Investors Sentiment

The influence of Gamestop Corp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Gamestop. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Gamestop Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Gamestop. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Gamestop can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Gamestop Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Gamestop Corp's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Gamestop Corp's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Gamestop Corp's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Gamestop Corp.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Gamestop Corp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Gamestop Corp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Gamestop Corp options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Gamestop Corp using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gamestop Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Gamestop Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Gamestop Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for Gamestop Stock analysis

When running Gamestop Corp price analysis, check to measure Gamestop Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gamestop Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Gamestop Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gamestop Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gamestop Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gamestop Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Go
ETF Directory
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world
Go
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Go
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Go
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Go
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Is Gamestop Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gamestop Corp. If investors know Gamestop will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Gamestop Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.69
Market Capitalization
13.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.08
Return On Assets
-0.0921
Return On Equity
-0.41
The market value of Gamestop Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Gamestop that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Gamestop Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Gamestop Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Gamestop Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Gamestop Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gamestop Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Gamestop Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gamestop Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.