Globus Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GMED Stock  USD 53.06  1.44  2.79%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Globus Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 53.02 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.83  and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.76. Globus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Globus Medical stock prices and determine the direction of Globus Medical's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Globus Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Globus Medical to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Globus Stock refer to our How to Trade Globus Stock guide.
  

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Globus Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Globus Medical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Globus Medical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Globus Medical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Globus Medical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Globus Medical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Globus Medical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Globus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Globus Medical cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Globus Medical's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Globus Medical's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Globus Medical is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Globus Medical value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Globus Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Globus Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 53.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Globus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Globus Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Globus Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Globus MedicalGlobus Medical Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Globus Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Globus Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Globus Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.47 and 54.58, respectively. We have considered Globus Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
53.06
53.02
Expected Value
54.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Globus Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Globus Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.9577
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8348
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0155
SAESum of the absolute errors51.7586
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Globus Medical. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Globus Medical. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Globus Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Globus Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Globus Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.5153.0654.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
51.9053.4555.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Globus Medical. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Globus Medical's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Globus Medical's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Globus Medical.

Other Forecasting Options for Globus Medical

For every potential investor in Globus, whether a beginner or expert, Globus Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Globus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Globus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Globus Medical's price trends.

Globus Medical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Globus Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Globus Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Globus Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Globus Medical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Globus Medical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Globus Medical's current price.

Globus Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Globus Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Globus Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Globus Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Globus Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Globus Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Globus Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Globus Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting globus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Globus Medical is a strong investment it is important to analyze Globus Medical's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Globus Medical's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Globus Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Globus Medical to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Globus Stock refer to our How to Trade Globus Stock guide.
Note that the Globus Medical information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Globus Medical's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

Complementary Tools for Globus Stock analysis

When running Globus Medical's price analysis, check to measure Globus Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Globus Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Globus Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Globus Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Globus Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Globus Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Globus Medical's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Globus Medical. If investors know Globus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Globus Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Globus Medical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Globus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Globus Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Globus Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Globus Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Globus Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Globus Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Globus Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Globus Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.