Generac Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GNRC Stock | USD 137.18 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Generac Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 135.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 180.71. Generac Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Generac Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Generac Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Generac Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Generac Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Generac Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Generac Holdings fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Generac Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Generac |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-26 Generac Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Generac Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Generac Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Generac Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Generac Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Generac Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Generac Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Generac. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Generac Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Generac Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Generac Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Generac Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Generac Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Generac Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Generac Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 135.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.91, mean absolute percentage error of 12.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 180.71.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Generac Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Generac Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Generac Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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Generac Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Generac Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Generac Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 132.95 and 137.27, respectively. We have considered Generac Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Generac Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Generac Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.4568 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.9147 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.024 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 180.7091 |
Predictive Modules for Generac Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Generac Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Generac Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Generac Holdings
For every potential investor in Generac, whether a beginner or expert, Generac Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Generac Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Generac. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Generac Holdings' price trends.Generac Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Generac Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Generac Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Generac Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Generac Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Generac Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Generac Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Generac Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Generac Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Generac Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Generac Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Generac Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0304 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 135.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 136.35 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 4.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.24 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 61.21 |
Generac Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Generac Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Generac Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting generac stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Variance | 4.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.70) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Generac Holdings Investors Sentiment
The influence of Generac Holdings' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Generac. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Generac Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Generac. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Generac can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Generac Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Generac Holdings' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Generac Holdings' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Generac Holdings' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Generac Holdings.
Generac Holdings Implied Volatility | 56.54 |
Generac Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Generac Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Generac Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Generac Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Generac Holdings' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Generac Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Generac Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Generac Holdings options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Generac Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Generac Stock refer to our How to Trade Generac Stock guide.You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
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When running Generac Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Generac Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Generac Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Generac Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Generac Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Generac Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Generac Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Generac Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Generac Holdings. If investors know Generac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Generac Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.894 | Earnings Share 3.27 | Revenue Per Share 65.66 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.014 | Return On Assets 0.0471 |
The market value of Generac Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Generac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Generac Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Generac Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Generac Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Generac Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Generac Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Generac Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Generac Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.