Golden Ocean Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GOGL Stock | USD 13.09 0.12 0.93% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Golden Ocean Group on the next trading day is expected to be 13.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.89. Golden Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Golden Ocean stock prices and determine the direction of Golden Ocean Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Golden Ocean's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Golden Ocean's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Golden Ocean's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Golden Ocean fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Golden Ocean to cross-verify your projections. Golden |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Golden Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Golden Ocean's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Golden Ocean's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Golden Ocean stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Golden Ocean's open interest, investors have to compare it to Golden Ocean's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Golden Ocean is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Golden. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Golden Ocean cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Golden Ocean's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Golden Ocean's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Golden Ocean simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Golden Ocean Group are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Golden Ocean Group prices get older. Golden Ocean Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Golden Ocean Group on the next trading day is expected to be 13.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Golden Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Golden Ocean's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Golden Ocean Stock Forecast Pattern
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Golden Ocean Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Golden Ocean's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Golden Ocean's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.11 and 15.07, respectively. We have considered Golden Ocean's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Golden Ocean stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Golden Ocean stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.464 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0432 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1982 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0162 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.89 |
Predictive Modules for Golden Ocean
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Golden Ocean Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golden Ocean's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Golden Ocean
For every potential investor in Golden, whether a beginner or expert, Golden Ocean's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Golden Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Golden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Golden Ocean's price trends.Golden Ocean Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Golden Ocean stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Golden Ocean could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Golden Ocean by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Golden Ocean Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Golden Ocean's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Golden Ocean's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Golden Ocean Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Golden Ocean stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Golden Ocean shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Golden Ocean stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Golden Ocean Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Golden Ocean Risk Indicators
The analysis of Golden Ocean's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Golden Ocean's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting golden stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.99 | |||
| Variance | 3.94 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Golden Ocean Investors Sentiment
The influence of Golden Ocean's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Golden. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Golden Ocean's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Golden. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Golden can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Golden Ocean Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Golden Ocean's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Golden Ocean's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Golden Ocean's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Golden Ocean.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Golden Ocean in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Golden Ocean's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Golden Ocean options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Golden Ocean to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Golden Ocean Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Golden Ocean's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Complementary Tools for Golden Stock analysis
When running Golden Ocean's price analysis, check to measure Golden Ocean's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Golden Ocean is operating at the current time. Most of Golden Ocean's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Golden Ocean's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Golden Ocean's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Golden Ocean to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Golden Ocean's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Golden Ocean. If investors know Golden will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Golden Ocean listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Dividend Share 0.6 | Earnings Share 0.56 | Revenue Per Share 4.431 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.019 |
The market value of Golden Ocean Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Golden that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Golden Ocean's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Golden Ocean's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Golden Ocean's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Golden Ocean's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Golden Ocean's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Golden Ocean is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Golden Ocean's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.