GeoVax Labs Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| GOVX Stock | USD 1.52 0.06 4.11% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of GeoVax Labs on the next trading day is expected to be 1.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.17. GeoVax Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast GeoVax Labs stock prices and determine the direction of GeoVax Labs's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of GeoVax Labs' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although GeoVax Labs' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of GeoVax Labs' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of GeoVax Labs fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GeoVax Labs to cross-verify your projections. GeoVax |
Most investors in GeoVax Labs cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the GeoVax Labs' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets GeoVax Labs' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for GeoVax Labs is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. GeoVax Labs 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of GeoVax Labs on the next trading day is expected to be 1.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GeoVax Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GeoVax Labs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GeoVax Labs Stock Forecast Pattern
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GeoVax Labs Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GeoVax Labs' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GeoVax Labs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.68, respectively. We have considered GeoVax Labs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GeoVax Labs stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GeoVax Labs stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.9 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1129 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1609 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0688 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.1725 |
Predictive Modules for GeoVax Labs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GeoVax Labs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GeoVax Labs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for GeoVax Labs
For every potential investor in GeoVax, whether a beginner or expert, GeoVax Labs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GeoVax Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GeoVax. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GeoVax Labs' price trends.View GeoVax Labs Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GeoVax Labs Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GeoVax Labs' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GeoVax Labs' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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GeoVax Labs Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GeoVax Labs stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GeoVax Labs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GeoVax Labs stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GeoVax Labs entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
GeoVax Labs Risk Indicators
The analysis of GeoVax Labs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GeoVax Labs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting geovax stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.09 | |||
| Variance | 25.89 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards GeoVax Labs in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, GeoVax Labs' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from GeoVax Labs options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GeoVax Labs to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy GeoVax Stock please use our How to Invest in GeoVax Labs guide.You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Complementary Tools for GeoVax Stock analysis
When running GeoVax Labs' price analysis, check to measure GeoVax Labs' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GeoVax Labs is operating at the current time. Most of GeoVax Labs' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GeoVax Labs' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GeoVax Labs' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GeoVax Labs to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is GeoVax Labs' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of GeoVax Labs. If investors know GeoVax will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about GeoVax Labs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (14.29) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) | Return On Assets (0.82) | Return On Equity (1.60) |
The market value of GeoVax Labs is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GeoVax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GeoVax Labs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GeoVax Labs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GeoVax Labs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GeoVax Labs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GeoVax Labs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GeoVax Labs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GeoVax Labs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.