Groupon Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

GRPN Stock  USD 12.82  0.09  0.70%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Groupon on the next trading day is expected to be 12.35 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.61  and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.77. Groupon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Groupon stock prices and determine the direction of Groupon's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Groupon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Groupon's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Groupon's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Groupon fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Groupon to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Groupon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Groupon guide.
  
At this time, Groupon's Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 22.42, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 0.35. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 37.6 M, though Net Loss is likely to grow to (203.2 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Groupon Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Groupon's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Groupon's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Groupon stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Groupon's open interest, investors have to compare it to Groupon's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Groupon is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Groupon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Groupon cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Groupon's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Groupon's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Groupon - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Groupon prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Groupon price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Groupon.

Groupon Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Groupon on the next trading day is expected to be 12.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Groupon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Groupon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Groupon Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest GrouponGroupon Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Groupon Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Groupon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Groupon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.48 and 18.22, respectively. We have considered Groupon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.82
12.35
Expected Value
18.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Groupon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Groupon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0533
MADMean absolute deviation0.6129
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0426
SAESum of the absolute errors36.7746
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Groupon observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Groupon observations.

Predictive Modules for Groupon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Groupon. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Groupon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.6812.5518.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.8812.7518.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.7012.9513.19
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.5113.7515.26
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Groupon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Groupon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Groupon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Groupon.

Other Forecasting Options for Groupon

For every potential investor in Groupon, whether a beginner or expert, Groupon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Groupon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Groupon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Groupon's price trends.

Groupon Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Groupon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Groupon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Groupon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Groupon Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Groupon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Groupon's current price.

Groupon Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Groupon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Groupon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Groupon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Groupon entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Groupon Risk Indicators

The analysis of Groupon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Groupon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting groupon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Groupon offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Groupon's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Groupon Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Groupon Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Groupon to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Groupon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Groupon guide.
You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.

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When running Groupon's price analysis, check to measure Groupon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Groupon is operating at the current time. Most of Groupon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Groupon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Groupon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Groupon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Groupon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Groupon. If investors know Groupon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Groupon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.092
Earnings Share
(1.77)
Revenue Per Share
16.481
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.07)
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Groupon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Groupon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Groupon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Groupon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Groupon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Groupon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Groupon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Groupon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Groupon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.