Globalstar Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

GSAT Stock  USD 1.33  0.01  0.76%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Globalstar on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.05  and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.00. Globalstar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Globalstar stock prices and determine the direction of Globalstar's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Globalstar's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Globalstar's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Globalstar's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Globalstar fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Globalstar to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Globalstar Stock please use our How to Invest in Globalstar guide.
  
At this time, Globalstar's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 81.31 in 2024, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.32 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 1.9 B in 2024, despite the fact that Net Loss is likely to grow to (220.8 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-12 Globalstar Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Globalstar's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Globalstar's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Globalstar stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Globalstar's open interest, investors have to compare it to Globalstar's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Globalstar is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Globalstar. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Globalstar cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Globalstar's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Globalstar's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Globalstar - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Globalstar prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Globalstar price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Globalstar.

Globalstar Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of April 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Globalstar on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Globalstar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Globalstar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Globalstar Stock Forecast Pattern

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Globalstar Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Globalstar's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Globalstar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.71, respectively. We have considered Globalstar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.33
1.31
Expected Value
5.71
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Globalstar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Globalstar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0091
MADMean absolute deviation0.0508
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0336
SAESum of the absolute errors2.9982
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Globalstar observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Globalstar observations.

Predictive Modules for Globalstar

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Globalstar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Globalstar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.071.305.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.102.076.46
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.974.364.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Globalstar. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Globalstar's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Globalstar's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Globalstar.

Other Forecasting Options for Globalstar

For every potential investor in Globalstar, whether a beginner or expert, Globalstar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Globalstar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Globalstar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Globalstar's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Globalstar Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Globalstar's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Globalstar's current price.

Globalstar Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Globalstar stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Globalstar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Globalstar stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Globalstar entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Globalstar Risk Indicators

The analysis of Globalstar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Globalstar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting globalstar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Globalstar is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Globalstar Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Globalstar Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Globalstar Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Globalstar to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Globalstar Stock please use our How to Invest in Globalstar guide.
Note that the Globalstar information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Globalstar's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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When running Globalstar's price analysis, check to measure Globalstar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Globalstar is operating at the current time. Most of Globalstar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Globalstar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Globalstar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Globalstar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Globalstar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Globalstar. If investors know Globalstar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Globalstar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.02)
Revenue Per Share
0.122
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.269
Return On Assets
0.0023
Return On Equity
(0.07)
The market value of Globalstar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Globalstar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Globalstar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Globalstar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Globalstar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Globalstar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Globalstar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Globalstar is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Globalstar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.