GSE Systems Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GVP Stock  USD 4.07  0.02  0.49%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of GSE Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 4.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.47. GSE Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although GSE Systems' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of GSE Systems' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of GSE Systems fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, GSE Systems' Inventory Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 10/05/2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 14.74, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 2.78. . As of 10/05/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 4.6 M. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 10 M.
Most investors in GSE Systems cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the GSE Systems' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets GSE Systems' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the accuracy of the generated results.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1995-06-30
Previous Quarter
1.7 M
Current Value
1.6 M
Quarterly Volatility
M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for GSE Systems is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of GSE Systems value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

GSE Systems Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GSE Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 4.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.47.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GSE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GSE Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GSE Systems Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest GSE SystemsGSE Systems Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

GSE Systems Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GSE Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GSE Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 10.64, respectively. We have considered GSE Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.07
4.13
Expected Value
10.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GSE Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GSE Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.9072
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1225
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0353
SAESum of the absolute errors7.4705
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of GSE Systems. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict GSE Systems. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for GSE Systems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GSE Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GSE Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.224.4810.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.163.119.62
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
2.733.003.33
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for GSE Systems

For every potential investor in GSE, whether a beginner or expert, GSE Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GSE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GSE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GSE Systems' price trends.

GSE Systems Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GSE Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GSE Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GSE Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

GSE Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GSE Systems' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GSE Systems' current price.

GSE Systems Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GSE Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GSE Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GSE Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GSE Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

GSE Systems Risk Indicators

The analysis of GSE Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GSE Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gse stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with GSE Systems

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if GSE Systems position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in GSE Systems will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with GSE Stock

  0.72BL BlacklinePairCorr
  0.82DT Dynatrace Holdings LLCPairCorr

Moving against GSE Stock

  0.7EB Eventbrite Class APairCorr
  0.59DV DoubleVerify HoldingsPairCorr
  0.58ML MoneyLionPairCorr
  0.55DMAN Innovativ Media GroupPairCorr
  0.48PD PagerdutyPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to GSE Systems could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace GSE Systems when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back GSE Systems - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling GSE Systems to buy it.
The correlation of GSE Systems is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as GSE Systems moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if GSE Systems moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for GSE Systems can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for GSE Stock Analysis

When running GSE Systems' price analysis, check to measure GSE Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GSE Systems is operating at the current time. Most of GSE Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GSE Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GSE Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GSE Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.