Global Water Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GWRS Stock | USD 12.13 0.10 0.82% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Water Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 12.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.03. Global Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Global Water stock prices and determine the direction of Global Water Resources's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Global Water's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Global Water's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Global Water's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Global Water fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Water to cross-verify your projections. Global |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Global Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Global Water's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Global Water's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Global Water stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Global Water's open interest, investors have to compare it to Global Water's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Global Water is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Global. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Global Water cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Global Water's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Global Water's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Global Water works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Global Water Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Global Water Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 12.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Global Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Global Water's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Global Water Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Global Water | Global Water Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Global Water Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Global Water's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Global Water's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.08 and 14.26, respectively. We have considered Global Water's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Global Water stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Global Water stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0288 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2039 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.0296 |
Predictive Modules for Global Water
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Global Water Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Global Water's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Global Water
For every potential investor in Global, whether a beginner or expert, Global Water's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Global Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Global. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Global Water's price trends.Global Water Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Global Water stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Global Water could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Global Water by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Global Water Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Global Water's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Global Water's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Global Water Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Global Water stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Global Water shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Global Water stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Global Water Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Global Water Risk Indicators
The analysis of Global Water's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Global Water's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting global stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Variance | 4.37 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.13 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Global Water in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Global Water's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Global Water options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Water to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for Global Stock analysis
When running Global Water's price analysis, check to measure Global Water's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Global Water is operating at the current time. Most of Global Water's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Global Water's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Global Water's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Global Water to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Global Water's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Global Water. If investors know Global will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Global Water listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.26 | Dividend Share 0.301 | Earnings Share 0.33 | Revenue Per Share 2.205 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.114 |
The market value of Global Water Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Global that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Global Water's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Global Water's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Global Water's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Global Water's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Global Water's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Global Water is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Global Water's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.