HCA Holdings Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HCA Etf | USD 297.00 14.03 4.51% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of HCA Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 293.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 173.14. HCA Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast HCA Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of HCA Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of HCA Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HCA Holdings to cross-verify your projections. HCA |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 HCA Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast HCA Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in HCA Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for HCA Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current HCA Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to HCA Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of HCA Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in HCA. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in HCA Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, etf markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the HCA Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets HCA Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for HCA Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of HCA Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. HCA Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of HCA Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 293.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.84, mean absolute percentage error of 13.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 173.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HCA Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HCA Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HCA Holdings Etf Forecast Pattern
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HCA Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting HCA Holdings' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HCA Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 292.50 and 295.30, respectively. We have considered HCA Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HCA Holdings etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HCA Holdings etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.7019 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.8383 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0091 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 173.1387 |
Predictive Modules for HCA Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HCA Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HCA Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for HCA Holdings
For every potential investor in HCA, whether a beginner or expert, HCA Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HCA Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HCA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HCA Holdings' price trends.HCA Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HCA Holdings etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HCA Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HCA Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HCA Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of HCA Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of HCA Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HCA Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HCA Holdings etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HCA Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HCA Holdings etf market strength indicators, traders can identify HCA Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0382 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.21) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 298.79 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 298.19 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 11.64 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (8.81) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (14.03) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.96 |
HCA Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of HCA Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HCA Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hca etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9833 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Variance | 2.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.77 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of HCA Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade HCA Etf refer to our How to Trade HCA Etf guide.Note that the HCA Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other HCA Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
The market value of HCA Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HCA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HCA Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HCA Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HCA Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HCA Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HCA Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HCA Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HCA Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.