THE GROWTH Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

HCEGX Fund  USD 26.00  0.11  0.42%   
HCEGX Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast THE GROWTH historical stock prices and determine the direction of THE GROWTH EQUITY's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of THE GROWTH historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check fundamental analysis of THE GROWTH to check your projections.
  
Most investors in THE GROWTH cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the THE GROWTH's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets THE GROWTH's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for THE GROWTH is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of THE GROWTH EQUITY value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

THE GROWTH Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of THE GROWTH EQUITY on the next trading day is expected to be 25.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HCEGX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that THE GROWTH's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

THE GROWTH Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

THE GROWTH Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting THE GROWTH's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. THE GROWTH's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.80 and 27.68, respectively. We have considered THE GROWTH's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 26.00
25.74
Expected Value
27.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of THE GROWTH mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent THE GROWTH mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.1571
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2905
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0116
SAESum of the absolute errors17.722
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of THE GROWTH EQUITY. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict THE GROWTH. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for THE GROWTH

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as THE GROWTH EQUITY. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of THE GROWTH's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of THE GROWTH in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
24.0626.0027.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
23.8125.7527.69
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
23.7625.0126.26
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as THE GROWTH. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against THE GROWTH's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, THE GROWTH's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in THE GROWTH EQUITY.

Other Forecasting Options for THE GROWTH

For every potential investor in HCEGX, whether a beginner or expert, THE GROWTH's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HCEGX Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HCEGX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying THE GROWTH's price trends.

THE GROWTH Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with THE GROWTH mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of THE GROWTH could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing THE GROWTH by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
IQ US MidFirst Trust ActiveETF Series SolutionsAcclivity Mid CapUnified Series TrustVanEck ETF TrustFirst Trust ActiveAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

THE GROWTH EQUITY Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of THE GROWTH's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of THE GROWTH's current price.

THE GROWTH Risk Indicators

The analysis of THE GROWTH's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in THE GROWTH's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting THE GROWTH stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in THE GROWTH without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check fundamental analysis of THE GROWTH to check your projections. Note that the THE GROWTH EQUITY information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other THE GROWTH's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

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When running THE GROWTH EQUITY price analysis, check to measure THE GROWTH's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy THE GROWTH is operating at the current time. Most of THE GROWTH's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of THE GROWTH's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move THE GROWTH's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of THE GROWTH to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between THE GROWTH's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine THE GROWTH value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, THE GROWTH's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.