The Growth Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

HCEGX Fund  USD 34.55  0.02  0.06%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Growth Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 34.60 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.22  and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.94. The Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast The Growth stock prices and determine the direction of The Growth Equity's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of The Growth's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of The Growth to check your projections.
  
Most investors in The Growth cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the The Growth's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets The Growth's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for The Growth - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When The Growth prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in The Growth price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of The Growth Equity.

The Growth Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Growth Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 34.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.94.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict The Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that The Growth's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

The Growth Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

The Growth Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting The Growth's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. The Growth's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.82 and 35.37, respectively. We have considered The Growth's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
34.55
34.60
Expected Value
35.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of The Growth mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent The Growth mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.04
MADMean absolute deviation0.2194
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0067
SAESum of the absolute errors12.9439
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past The Growth observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older The Growth Equity observations.

Predictive Modules for The Growth

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as The Growth Equity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of The Growth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
33.7534.5335.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.2634.0434.82
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as The Growth. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against The Growth's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, The Growth's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in The Growth Equity.

Other Forecasting Options for The Growth

For every potential investor in The, whether a beginner or expert, The Growth's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. The Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in The. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying The Growth's price trends.

The Growth Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with The Growth mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of The Growth could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing The Growth by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

The Growth Equity Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of The Growth's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of The Growth's current price.

The Growth Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how The Growth mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading The Growth shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying The Growth mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify The Growth Equity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

The Growth Risk Indicators

The analysis of The Growth's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in The Growth's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting the mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards The Growth in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, The Growth's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from The Growth options trading.

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Check out fundamental analysis of The Growth to check your projections.
Note that the The Growth Equity information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other The Growth's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.

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When running The Growth's price analysis, check to measure The Growth's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy The Growth is operating at the current time. Most of The Growth's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of The Growth's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move The Growth's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of The Growth to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between The Growth's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if The Growth is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, The Growth's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.