Home Federal Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| HFBL Stock | USD 11.63 0.01 0.09% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Home Federal Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.77. Home Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Home Federal stock prices and determine the direction of Home Federal Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Home Federal's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Home Federal's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Home Federal's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Home Federal fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Federal to cross-verify your projections. Home |
Most investors in Home Federal cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Home Federal's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Home Federal's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Home Federal Bancorp is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Home Federal 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Home Federal Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Home Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Home Federal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Home Federal Stock Forecast Pattern
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Home Federal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Home Federal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Home Federal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.52 and 13.81, respectively. We have considered Home Federal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Home Federal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Home Federal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.0951 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.095 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2202 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0175 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.7725 |
Predictive Modules for Home Federal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home Federal Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home Federal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Home Federal
For every potential investor in Home, whether a beginner or expert, Home Federal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Home Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Home. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Home Federal's price trends.Home Federal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Home Federal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Home Federal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Home Federal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Home Federal Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Home Federal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Home Federal's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Home Federal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Home Federal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Home Federal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Home Federal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Home Federal Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Home Federal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Home Federal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Home Federal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting home stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Variance | 4.4 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Home Federal in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Home Federal's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Home Federal options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Home Federal to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Home Federal Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Home Federal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Complementary Tools for Home Stock analysis
When running Home Federal's price analysis, check to measure Home Federal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Home Federal is operating at the current time. Most of Home Federal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Home Federal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Home Federal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Home Federal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Home Federal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home Federal. If investors know Home will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home Federal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.40) | Dividend Share 0.49 | Earnings Share 1.48 | Revenue Per Share 7.482 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) |
The market value of Home Federal Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home Federal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home Federal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home Federal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home Federal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home Federal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Home Federal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home Federal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.