Highland LongShort Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

HHCAX -  USA Fund  

USD 14.38  0.24  1.64%

Highland Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Highland LongShort historical stock prices and determine the direction of Highland LongShort Healthcare's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Highland LongShort historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Highland LongShort to cross-verify your projections.

Highland Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Highland LongShort cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Highland LongShort's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Highland LongShort's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Highland LongShort simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Highland LongShort Healthcare are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Highland LongShort prices get older.

Highland LongShort Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Highland LongShort Healthcare on the next trading day is expected to be 14.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.023405, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.37. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Highland Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Highland LongShort's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Highland LongShort Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Highland LongShort Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Highland LongShort's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Highland LongShort's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.39 and 15.37, respectively. We have considered Highland LongShort's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.38
30th of November 2021
14.38
Expected Value
15.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Highland LongShort mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Highland LongShort mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.5178
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0402
MADMean absolute deviation0.1062
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.007
SAESum of the absolute errors6.37
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Highland LongShort Healthcare forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Highland LongShort observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Highland LongShort

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Highland LongShort. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Highland LongShort's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Highland LongShort in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
13.3914.3815.37
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
12.8513.8414.83
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Highland LongShort. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Highland LongShort's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Highland LongShort's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Highland LongShort.

Other Forecasting Options for Highland LongShort

For every potential investor in Highland, whether a beginner or expert, Highland LongShort's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Highland Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Highland. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Highland LongShort's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Highland LongShort mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Highland LongShort could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Highland LongShort by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Highland LongShort Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Highland LongShort's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Highland LongShort's current price.

Highland LongShort Risk Indicators

The analysis of Highland LongShort's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Highland LongShort's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Highland LongShort stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Highland LongShort Investors Sentiment

The influence of Highland LongShort's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Highland. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Highland LongShort in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Highland LongShort's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Highland LongShort options trading.

Current Sentiment - HHCAX

Highland LongShort Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are indifferent in their judgment towards investing in Highland LongShort Healthcare. What is your judgment towards investing in Highland LongShort Healthcare? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Highland LongShort to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Highland LongShort information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Highland LongShort's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

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When running Highland LongShort price analysis, check to measure Highland LongShort's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Highland LongShort is operating at the current time. Most of Highland LongShort's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Highland LongShort's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Highland LongShort's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Highland LongShort to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Highland LongShort's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Highland LongShort value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Highland LongShort's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.