Highway Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| HIHO Stock | USD 2.08 0.01 0.48% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Highway Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.73. Highway Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Highway Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Highway Holdings Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Highway Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Highway Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Highway Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Highway Holdings fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Highway Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Highway |
Most investors in Highway Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Highway Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Highway Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Highway Holdings price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Highway Holdings Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Highway Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Highway Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Highway Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Highway Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Highway Holdings | Highway Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Highway Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Highway Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Highway Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.41 and 3.81, respectively. We have considered Highway Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Highway Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Highway Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3176 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0279 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0137 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.7285 |
Predictive Modules for Highway Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Highway Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Highway Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Highway Holdings
For every potential investor in Highway, whether a beginner or expert, Highway Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Highway Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Highway. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Highway Holdings' price trends.Highway Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Highway Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Highway Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Highway Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Highway Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Highway Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Highway Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Highway Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Highway Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Highway Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Highway Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Highway Holdings Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 21.02 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.25) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.09 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) |
Highway Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Highway Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Highway Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting highway stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Variance | 2.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.8 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Highway Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Highway Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Highway Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Complementary Tools for Highway Stock analysis
When running Highway Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Highway Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Highway Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Highway Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Highway Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Highway Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Highway Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Highway Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Highway Holdings. If investors know Highway will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Highway Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.885 | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share (0.23) | Revenue Per Share 1.987 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.603 |
The market value of Highway Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Highway that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Highway Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Highway Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Highway Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Highway Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Highway Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Highway Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Highway Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.