Hellenic Petroleum OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HLPMF -  USA Stock  

USD 6.57  0.00  0.00%

Hellenic OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hellenic Petroleum historical stock prices and determine the direction of Hellenic Petroleum SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Hellenic Petroleum historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hellenic Petroleum to cross-verify your projections.

Hellenic O TC Stock Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Hellenic Petroleum cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hellenic Petroleum's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hellenic Petroleum's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Hellenic Petroleum is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hellenic Petroleum SA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hellenic Petroleum Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hellenic Petroleum SA on the next trading day is expected to be 6.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hellenic OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hellenic Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hellenic Petroleum OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

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Hellenic Petroleum Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hellenic Petroleum's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hellenic Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.57 and 6.57, respectively. We have considered Hellenic Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.57
18th of October 2021
6.57
Expected Value
6.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hellenic Petroleum otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hellenic Petroleum otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria53.2246
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hellenic Petroleum SA. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hellenic Petroleum. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hellenic Petroleum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hellenic Petroleum. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hellenic Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hellenic Petroleum in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
6.576.576.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
6.576.576.57
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6.576.576.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hellenic Petroleum. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hellenic Petroleum's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hellenic Petroleum's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hellenic Petroleum.

Other Forecasting Options for Hellenic Petroleum

For every potential investor in Hellenic, whether a beginner or expert, Hellenic Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hellenic OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hellenic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hellenic Petroleum's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hellenic Petroleum otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hellenic Petroleum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hellenic Petroleum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Hellenic Petroleum Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hellenic Petroleum's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hellenic Petroleum's current price.

Hellenic Petroleum Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hellenic Petroleum otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hellenic Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hellenic Petroleum otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hellenic Petroleum SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Hellenic Petroleum without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hellenic Petroleum to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Hellenic Petroleum information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hellenic Petroleum's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

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When running Hellenic Petroleum price analysis, check to measure Hellenic Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hellenic Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Hellenic Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hellenic Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hellenic Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hellenic Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Hellenic Petroleum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hellenic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hellenic Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hellenic Petroleum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hellenic Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hellenic Petroleum underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hellenic Petroleum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Hellenic Petroleum value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hellenic Petroleum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.