Harmony Gold Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| HMY Stock | USD 8.74 0.03 0.34% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Harmony Gold Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 8.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.34. Harmony Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Harmony Gold stock prices and determine the direction of Harmony Gold Mining's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Harmony Gold's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Harmony Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Harmony Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Harmony Gold fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harmony Gold to cross-verify your projections. Harmony |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Harmony Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Harmony Gold's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Harmony Gold's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Harmony Gold stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Harmony Gold's open interest, investors have to compare it to Harmony Gold's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Harmony Gold is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Harmony. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Harmony Gold cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Harmony Gold's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Harmony Gold's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Harmony Gold works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Harmony Gold Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Harmony Gold Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 8.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Harmony Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Harmony Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Harmony Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Harmony Gold | Harmony Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Harmony Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Harmony Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Harmony Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.33 and 12.17, respectively. We have considered Harmony Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Harmony Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Harmony Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0252 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1752 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0242 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.3378 |
Predictive Modules for Harmony Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harmony Gold Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harmony Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Harmony Gold
For every potential investor in Harmony, whether a beginner or expert, Harmony Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Harmony Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Harmony. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Harmony Gold's price trends.Harmony Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Harmony Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Harmony Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harmony Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Harmony Gold Mining Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Harmony Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Harmony Gold's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Harmony Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Harmony Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Harmony Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Harmony Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Harmony Gold Mining entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Harmony Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Harmony Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Harmony Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting harmony stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.49 | |||
| Variance | 12.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Harmony Gold Investors Sentiment
The influence of Harmony Gold's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Harmony. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Harmony Gold's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Harmony. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Harmony can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Harmony Gold Mining. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Harmony Gold's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Harmony Gold's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Harmony Gold's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Harmony Gold.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Harmony Gold in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Harmony Gold's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Harmony Gold options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harmony Gold to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for Harmony Stock analysis
When running Harmony Gold's price analysis, check to measure Harmony Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harmony Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Harmony Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harmony Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harmony Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harmony Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| Content Syndication Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Funds Screener Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges | |
| Bond Analysis Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios. | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges |
Is Harmony Gold's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Harmony Gold. If investors know Harmony will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Harmony Gold listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.209 | Dividend Share 2.22 | Earnings Share 0.75 | Revenue Per Share 92.841 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.351 |
The market value of Harmony Gold Mining is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Harmony that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Harmony Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Harmony Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Harmony Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Harmony Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Harmony Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Harmony Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Harmony Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.