Honeywell International Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

HON Stock  USD 205.13  4.13  2.05%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Honeywell International on the next trading day is expected to be 202.61 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.98  and the sum of the absolute errors of 122.67. Honeywell Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Honeywell International stock prices and determine the direction of Honeywell International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Honeywell International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Honeywell International's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Honeywell International's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Honeywell International fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Honeywell International to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Honeywell Stock, please use our How to Invest in Honeywell International guide.
  
At this time, Honeywell International's Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 6.88, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 3.10. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 785.9 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop about 3.7 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Honeywell Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Honeywell International's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Honeywell International's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Honeywell International stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Honeywell International's open interest, investors have to compare it to Honeywell International's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Honeywell International is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Honeywell. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Honeywell International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Honeywell International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Honeywell International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Honeywell International polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Honeywell International as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Honeywell International Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Honeywell International on the next trading day is expected to be 202.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.98, mean absolute percentage error of 6.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 122.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Honeywell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Honeywell International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Honeywell International Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Honeywell InternationalHoneywell International Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Honeywell International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Honeywell International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Honeywell International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 201.60 and 203.62, respectively. We have considered Honeywell International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
205.13
201.60
Downside
202.61
Expected Value
203.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Honeywell International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Honeywell International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.7646
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.9785
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0099
SAESum of the absolute errors122.6701
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Honeywell International historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Honeywell International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Honeywell International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Honeywell International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
204.15205.13206.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
202.27203.25225.64
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
196.05201.54207.02
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
196.34215.76239.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Honeywell International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Honeywell International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Honeywell International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Honeywell International.

Other Forecasting Options for Honeywell International

For every potential investor in Honeywell, whether a beginner or expert, Honeywell International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Honeywell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Honeywell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Honeywell International's price trends.

Honeywell International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Honeywell International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Honeywell International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Honeywell International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Honeywell International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Honeywell International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Honeywell International's current price.

Honeywell International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Honeywell International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Honeywell International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Honeywell International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Honeywell International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Honeywell International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Honeywell International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Honeywell International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting honeywell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Honeywell International Investors Sentiment

The influence of Honeywell International's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Honeywell. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Honeywell International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Honeywell. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Honeywell can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Honeywell International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Honeywell International's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Honeywell International's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Honeywell International's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Honeywell International.

Honeywell International Implied Volatility

    
  20.71  
Honeywell International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Honeywell International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Honeywell International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Honeywell International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Honeywell International's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Honeywell International in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Honeywell International's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Honeywell International options trading.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect
When determining whether Honeywell International offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Honeywell International's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Honeywell International Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Honeywell International Stock:

Complementary Tools for Honeywell Stock analysis

When running Honeywell International's price analysis, check to measure Honeywell International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Honeywell International is operating at the current time. Most of Honeywell International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Honeywell International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Honeywell International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Honeywell International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Latest Portfolios
Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios
AI Investment Finder
Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities
Global Correlations
Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Stocks Directory
Find actively traded stocks across global markets
USA ETFs
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Is Honeywell International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Honeywell International. If investors know Honeywell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Honeywell International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.268
Dividend Share
4.17
Earnings Share
8.46
Revenue Per Share
55.297
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.028
The market value of Honeywell International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Honeywell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Honeywell International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Honeywell International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Honeywell International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Honeywell International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Honeywell International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Honeywell International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Honeywell International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.