Hoth Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HOTH Stock | USD 1.23 0.03 2.50% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hoth Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.75. Hoth Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hoth Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Hoth Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hoth Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hoth Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hoth Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hoth Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hoth Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Hoth |
Most investors in Hoth Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hoth Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hoth Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Hoth Therapeutics simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Hoth Therapeutics are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Hoth Therapeutics prices get older. Hoth Therapeutics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hoth Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 1.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hoth Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hoth Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hoth Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hoth Therapeutics | Hoth Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Hoth Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hoth Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hoth Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.91, respectively. We have considered Hoth Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hoth Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hoth Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7681 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 8.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0458 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0334 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.75 |
Predictive Modules for Hoth Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hoth Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hoth Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Hoth Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Hoth, whether a beginner or expert, Hoth Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hoth Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hoth. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hoth Therapeutics' price trends.Hoth Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hoth Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hoth Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hoth Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hoth Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hoth Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hoth Therapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hoth Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hoth Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hoth Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hoth Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hoth Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hoth Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hoth Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hoth Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hoth stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.72 | |||
| Variance | 22.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hoth Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Hoth Stock please use our How to Invest in Hoth Therapeutics guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for Hoth Stock analysis
When running Hoth Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Hoth Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hoth Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Hoth Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hoth Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hoth Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hoth Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hoth Therapeutics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hoth Therapeutics. If investors know Hoth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hoth Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.30) | Return On Assets (0.59) | Return On Equity (1.13) |
The market value of Hoth Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hoth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hoth Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hoth Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hoth Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hoth Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hoth Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hoth Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hoth Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.