Hovnanian Enterprises Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HOV Stock  USD 71.47  3.79  5.60%   
Hovnanian Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hovnanian Enterprises historical stock prices and determine the direction of Hovnanian Enterprises's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hovnanian Enterprises naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hovnanian Enterprises fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises to cross-verify your projections.
Hovnanian Enterprises PPandE Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Hovnanian Enterprises reported PPandE Turnover of 135.67 in 2022. Receivables Turnover is likely to climb to 73.41 in 2023, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 1.49 in 2023. . Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to climb to about 61.5 M in 2023, whereas Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 5.3 M in 2023.
Most investors in Hovnanian Enterprises cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hovnanian Enterprises' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hovnanian Enterprises' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Hovnanian Enterprises is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hovnanian Enterprises value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hovnanian Enterprises Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hovnanian Enterprises on the next trading day is expected to be 74.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86, mean absolute percentage error of 5.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.39.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hovnanian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hovnanian Enterprises' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hovnanian Enterprises Stock Forecast Pattern

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Hovnanian Enterprises Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hovnanian Enterprises' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hovnanian Enterprises' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 69.38 and 79.22, respectively. We have considered Hovnanian Enterprises' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 71.47
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hovnanian Enterprises stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hovnanian Enterprises stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.7208
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.8589
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0394
SAESum of the absolute errors113.3915
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hovnanian Enterprises. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hovnanian Enterprises. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hovnanian Enterprises

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hovnanian Enterprises. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hovnanian Enterprises' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hovnanian Enterprises in the context of predictive analytics.
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LowReal ValueHigh
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hovnanian Enterprises. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hovnanian Enterprises' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hovnanian Enterprises' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hovnanian Enterprises.

Other Forecasting Options for Hovnanian Enterprises

For every potential investor in Hovnanian, whether a beginner or expert, Hovnanian Enterprises' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hovnanian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hovnanian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hovnanian Enterprises' price trends.

Hovnanian Enterprises Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hovnanian Enterprises stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hovnanian Enterprises by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
DTE EnergyDBA Sempra 5750Cabo Drilling CorpOrbit Garant DrillingCanadian UtilitiesDainichiseika ColorIndependence ContractPrecision DrillingAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hovnanian Enterprises Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hovnanian Enterprises' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hovnanian Enterprises' current price.

Hovnanian Enterprises Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hovnanian Enterprises' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Hovnanian Enterprises stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Hovnanian Enterprises Investors Sentiment

The influence of Hovnanian Enterprises' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Hovnanian. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Hovnanian Enterprises' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Hovnanian. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hovnanian can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hovnanian Enterprises. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Hovnanian Enterprises' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Hovnanian Enterprises' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Hovnanian Enterprises' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Hovnanian Enterprises.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hovnanian Enterprises in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hovnanian Enterprises' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hovnanian Enterprises options trading.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

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Is Hovnanian Enterprises' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hovnanian Enterprises. If investors know Hovnanian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hovnanian Enterprises listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
Market Capitalization
409.6 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Return On Assets
Return On Equity
The market value of Hovnanian Enterprises is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hovnanian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hovnanian Enterprises' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hovnanian Enterprises' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hovnanian Enterprises' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hovnanian Enterprises' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hovnanian Enterprises' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Hovnanian Enterprises value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hovnanian Enterprises' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.