Hovnanian Enterprises Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HOV Stock | USD 129.03 0.53 0.41% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hovnanian Enterprises on the next trading day is expected to be 119.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 307.09. Hovnanian Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hovnanian Enterprises stock prices and determine the direction of Hovnanian Enterprises's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hovnanian Enterprises' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hovnanian Enterprises fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises to cross-verify your projections. Hovnanian |
Most investors in Hovnanian Enterprises cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hovnanian Enterprises' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hovnanian Enterprises' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Hovnanian Enterprises is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hovnanian Enterprises value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Hovnanian Enterprises Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hovnanian Enterprises on the next trading day is expected to be 119.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.03, mean absolute percentage error of 39.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 307.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hovnanian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hovnanian Enterprises' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hovnanian Enterprises Stock Forecast Pattern
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Hovnanian Enterprises Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hovnanian Enterprises' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hovnanian Enterprises' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 115.55 and 124.00, respectively. We have considered Hovnanian Enterprises' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hovnanian Enterprises stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hovnanian Enterprises stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.7853 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.0343 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.033 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 307.0918 |
Predictive Modules for Hovnanian Enterprises
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hovnanian Enterprises. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hovnanian Enterprises' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Hovnanian Enterprises
For every potential investor in Hovnanian, whether a beginner or expert, Hovnanian Enterprises' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hovnanian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hovnanian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hovnanian Enterprises' price trends.Hovnanian Enterprises Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hovnanian Enterprises stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hovnanian Enterprises by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hovnanian Enterprises Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hovnanian Enterprises' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hovnanian Enterprises' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hovnanian Enterprises Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hovnanian Enterprises stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hovnanian Enterprises shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hovnanian Enterprises stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hovnanian Enterprises entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5001.82 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0611 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 132.66 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 131.45 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (3.36) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.53 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 69.06 |
Hovnanian Enterprises Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hovnanian Enterprises' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hovnanian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.18 | |||
| Variance | 17.5 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hovnanian Enterprises in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hovnanian Enterprises' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hovnanian Enterprises options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hovnanian Enterprises to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Hovnanian Stock please use our How to Invest in Hovnanian Enterprises guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Hovnanian Stock analysis
When running Hovnanian Enterprises' price analysis, check to measure Hovnanian Enterprises' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hovnanian Enterprises is operating at the current time. Most of Hovnanian Enterprises' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hovnanian Enterprises' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hovnanian Enterprises' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hovnanian Enterprises to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hovnanian Enterprises' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hovnanian Enterprises. If investors know Hovnanian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hovnanian Enterprises listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.288 | Earnings Share 27.53 | Revenue Per Share 449.441 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.153 | Return On Assets 0.0721 |
The market value of Hovnanian Enterprises is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hovnanian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hovnanian Enterprises' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hovnanian Enterprises' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hovnanian Enterprises' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hovnanian Enterprises' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hovnanian Enterprises' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hovnanian Enterprises is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hovnanian Enterprises' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.