Hewlett Packard Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

HPE Stock  USD 17.73  0.06  0.34%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Hewlett Packard Enterprise on the next trading day is expected to be 17.89 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.54  and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.70. Hewlett Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hewlett Packard stock prices and determine the direction of Hewlett Packard Enterprise's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hewlett Packard's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hewlett Packard's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hewlett Packard's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hewlett Packard fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hewlett Packard to cross-verify your projections.
  
At present, Hewlett Packard's Fixed Asset Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.65, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 4.48. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 1.3 B, whereas Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is forecasted to decline to about 1.4 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Hewlett Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hewlett Packard's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hewlett Packard's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hewlett Packard stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hewlett Packard's open interest, investors have to compare it to Hewlett Packard's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hewlett Packard is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hewlett. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Hewlett Packard cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hewlett Packard's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hewlett Packard's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Hewlett Packard polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Hewlett Packard Enterprise as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Hewlett Packard Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Hewlett Packard Enterprise on the next trading day is expected to be 17.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hewlett Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hewlett Packard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hewlett Packard Stock Forecast Pattern

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Hewlett Packard Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hewlett Packard's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hewlett Packard's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.42 and 20.36, respectively. We have considered Hewlett Packard's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.73
17.89
Expected Value
20.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hewlett Packard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hewlett Packard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.3541
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5361
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.033
SAESum of the absolute errors32.7034
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Hewlett Packard historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Hewlett Packard

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hewlett Packard Ente. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hewlett Packard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.2917.7620.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.1917.6620.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.7517.0119.27
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
16.4818.1120.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hewlett Packard. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hewlett Packard's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hewlett Packard's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hewlett Packard Ente.

Other Forecasting Options for Hewlett Packard

For every potential investor in Hewlett, whether a beginner or expert, Hewlett Packard's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hewlett Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hewlett. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hewlett Packard's price trends.

Hewlett Packard Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hewlett Packard stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hewlett Packard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hewlett Packard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hewlett Packard Ente Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hewlett Packard's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hewlett Packard's current price.

Hewlett Packard Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hewlett Packard stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hewlett Packard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hewlett Packard stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hewlett Packard Enterprise entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hewlett Packard Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hewlett Packard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hewlett Packard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hewlett stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Hewlett Packard Investors Sentiment

The influence of Hewlett Packard's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Hewlett. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Hewlett Packard's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hewlett. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hewlett can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Hewlett Packard's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Hewlett Packard's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Hewlett Packard's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Hewlett Packard.

Hewlett Packard Implied Volatility

    
  33.15  
Hewlett Packard's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hewlett Packard's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hewlett Packard stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hewlett Packard's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hewlett Packard in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hewlett Packard's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hewlett Packard options trading.

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When determining whether Hewlett Packard Ente is a strong investment it is important to analyze Hewlett Packard's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Hewlett Packard's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Hewlett Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hewlett Packard to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

Complementary Tools for Hewlett Stock analysis

When running Hewlett Packard's price analysis, check to measure Hewlett Packard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hewlett Packard is operating at the current time. Most of Hewlett Packard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hewlett Packard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hewlett Packard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hewlett Packard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hewlett Packard's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hewlett Packard. If investors know Hewlett will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hewlett Packard listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.24)
Dividend Share
0.49
Earnings Share
1.45
Revenue Per Share
21.605
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.14)
The market value of Hewlett Packard Ente is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hewlett that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hewlett Packard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hewlett Packard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hewlett Packard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hewlett Packard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hewlett Packard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hewlett Packard is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hewlett Packard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.