Healthcare Realty Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

HR Stock  USD 13.89  0.22  1.56%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Healthcare Realty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 13.89 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.23  and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.71. Healthcare Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Healthcare Realty stock prices and determine the direction of Healthcare Realty Trust's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Healthcare Realty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Healthcare Realty's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Healthcare Realty's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Healthcare Realty fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Healthcare Realty to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Healthcare Realty's Inventory Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 04/16/2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 6.00, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 5.07. . As of 04/16/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 402.6 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop slightly above 34.2 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Healthcare Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Healthcare Realty's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Healthcare Realty's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Healthcare Realty stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Healthcare Realty's open interest, investors have to compare it to Healthcare Realty's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Healthcare Realty is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Healthcare. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Healthcare Realty cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Healthcare Realty's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Healthcare Realty's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Healthcare Realty simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Healthcare Realty Trust are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Healthcare Realty Trust prices get older.

Healthcare Realty Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Healthcare Realty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 13.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Healthcare Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Healthcare Realty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Healthcare Realty Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Healthcare RealtyHealthcare Realty Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Healthcare Realty Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Healthcare Realty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Healthcare Realty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.83 and 15.96, respectively. We have considered Healthcare Realty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.89
13.89
Expected Value
15.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Healthcare Realty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Healthcare Realty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.8843
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0525
MADMean absolute deviation0.2285
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0159
SAESum of the absolute errors13.709
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Healthcare Realty Trust forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Healthcare Realty observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Healthcare Realty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Healthcare Realty Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Healthcare Realty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.8213.8915.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.2614.3316.40
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
16.9018.5720.61
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.14-0.11-0.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Healthcare Realty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Healthcare Realty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Healthcare Realty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Healthcare Realty Trust.

Other Forecasting Options for Healthcare Realty

For every potential investor in Healthcare, whether a beginner or expert, Healthcare Realty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Healthcare Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Healthcare. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Healthcare Realty's price trends.

Healthcare Realty Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Healthcare Realty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Healthcare Realty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Healthcare Realty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Healthcare Realty Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Healthcare Realty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Healthcare Realty's current price.

Healthcare Realty Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Healthcare Realty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Healthcare Realty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Healthcare Realty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Healthcare Realty Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Healthcare Realty Risk Indicators

The analysis of Healthcare Realty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Healthcare Realty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting healthcare stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Healthcare Realty Investors Sentiment

The influence of Healthcare Realty's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Healthcare. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Healthcare Realty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Healthcare. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Healthcare can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Healthcare Realty Trust. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Healthcare Realty's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Healthcare Realty's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Healthcare Realty's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Healthcare Realty.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Healthcare Realty in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Healthcare Realty's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Healthcare Realty options trading.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect
When determining whether Healthcare Realty Trust is a strong investment it is important to analyze Healthcare Realty's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Healthcare Realty's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Healthcare Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Healthcare Realty to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

Complementary Tools for Healthcare Stock analysis

When running Healthcare Realty's price analysis, check to measure Healthcare Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Healthcare Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Healthcare Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Healthcare Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Healthcare Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Healthcare Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Top Crypto Exchanges
Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges
Is Healthcare Realty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Healthcare Realty. If investors know Healthcare will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Healthcare Realty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.77)
Dividend Share
1.24
Earnings Share
(0.74)
Revenue Per Share
3.542
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
The market value of Healthcare Realty Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Healthcare that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Healthcare Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Healthcare Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Healthcare Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Healthcare Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Healthcare Realty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Healthcare Realty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Healthcare Realty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.