Herc Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HRI Stock  USD 168.30  1.70  1.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Herc Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 167.99 with a mean absolute deviation of  3.02  and the sum of the absolute errors of 187.49. Herc Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Herc Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Herc Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Herc Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Herc Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Herc Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Herc Holdings fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Herc Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Herc Stock please use our How to Invest in Herc Holdings guide.
  
The current Inventory Turnover is estimated to decrease to 66.40. The current Payables Turnover is estimated to decrease to 6.54. The Herc Holdings' current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 398.4 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is projected to decrease to under 27.3 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Herc Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Herc Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Herc Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Herc Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Herc Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Herc Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Herc Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Herc. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Herc Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Herc Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Herc Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Herc Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Herc Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Herc Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Herc Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 167.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.02, mean absolute percentage error of 16.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 187.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Herc Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Herc Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Herc Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Herc HoldingsHerc Holdings Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Herc Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Herc Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Herc Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 165.76 and 170.22, respectively. We have considered Herc Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
168.30
165.76
Downside
167.99
Expected Value
170.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Herc Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Herc Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.7749
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.0241
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0198
SAESum of the absolute errors187.4948
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Herc Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Herc Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Herc Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Herc Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Herc Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
166.91169.12171.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
155.75157.96185.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
150.52161.28172.05
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
149.64164.44182.53
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Herc Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Herc Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Herc Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Herc Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Herc Holdings

For every potential investor in Herc, whether a beginner or expert, Herc Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Herc Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Herc. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Herc Holdings' price trends.

Herc Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Herc Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Herc Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Herc Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Herc Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Herc Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Herc Holdings' current price.

Herc Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Herc Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Herc Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Herc Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Herc Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Herc Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Herc Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Herc Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting herc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Herc Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Herc Holdings' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Herc Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Herc Holdings Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Herc Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Herc Stock please use our How to Invest in Herc Holdings guide.
You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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Is Herc Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Herc Holdings. If investors know Herc will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Herc Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.02)
Dividend Share
2.53
Earnings Share
12.09
Revenue Per Share
115.158
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.057
The market value of Herc Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Herc that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Herc Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Herc Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Herc Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Herc Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Herc Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Herc Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Herc Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.