Hormel Foods Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| HRL Stock | USD 35.60 0.46 1.31% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Hormel Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 33.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.64. Hormel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hormel Foods stock prices and determine the direction of Hormel Foods's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hormel Foods' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hormel Foods' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hormel Foods' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hormel Foods fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hormel Foods to cross-verify your projections. Hormel |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-26 Hormel Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hormel Foods' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hormel Foods' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hormel Foods stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hormel Foods' open interest, investors have to compare it to Hormel Foods' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hormel Foods is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hormel. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Hormel Foods cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hormel Foods' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hormel Foods' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Hormel Foods polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Hormel Foods as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Hormel Foods Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Hormel Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 33.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78, mean absolute percentage error of 0.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hormel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hormel Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hormel Foods Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hormel Foods | Hormel Foods Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Hormel Foods Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hormel Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hormel Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.63 and 36.14, respectively. We have considered Hormel Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hormel Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hormel Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9097 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7846 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0244 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 48.6426 |
Predictive Modules for Hormel Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hormel Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hormel Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Hormel Foods
For every potential investor in Hormel, whether a beginner or expert, Hormel Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hormel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hormel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hormel Foods' price trends.Hormel Foods Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hormel Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hormel Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hormel Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hormel Foods Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hormel Foods' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hormel Foods' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hormel Foods Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hormel Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hormel Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hormel Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hormel Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hormel Foods Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hormel Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hormel Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hormel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Variance | 4.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Hormel Foods Investors Sentiment
The influence of Hormel Foods' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Hormel. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Hormel Foods' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hormel. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hormel can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hormel Foods. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Hormel Foods' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Hormel Foods' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Hormel Foods' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Hormel Foods.
Hormel Foods Implied Volatility | 27.85 |
Hormel Foods' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hormel Foods stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hormel Foods' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hormel Foods stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hormel Foods' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hormel Foods in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hormel Foods' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hormel Foods options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hormel Foods to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Hormel Stock please use our How to buy in Hormel Stock guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for Hormel Stock analysis
When running Hormel Foods' price analysis, check to measure Hormel Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hormel Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Hormel Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hormel Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hormel Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hormel Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets | |
| AI Investment Finder Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets | |
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins |
Is Hormel Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hormel Foods. If investors know Hormel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hormel Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.004 | Dividend Share 1.108 | Earnings Share 1.45 | Revenue Per Share 22.203 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.009 |
The market value of Hormel Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hormel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hormel Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hormel Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hormel Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hormel Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hormel Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hormel Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hormel Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.