Harvest Oil Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HRST Stock | USD 2.56 0.01 0.39% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Harvest Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 2.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.31. Harvest Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Harvest Oil stock prices and determine the direction of Harvest Oil Gas's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Harvest Oil's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harvest Oil to cross-verify your projections. Harvest |
Most investors in Harvest Oil cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Harvest Oil's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Harvest Oil's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Harvest Oil is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Harvest Oil Gas value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Harvest Oil Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Harvest Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 2.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Harvest Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Harvest Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Harvest Oil Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Harvest Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Harvest Oil's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Harvest Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 5.92, respectively. We have considered Harvest Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Harvest Oil pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Harvest Oil pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8439 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0378 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.3058 |
Predictive Modules for Harvest Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harvest Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harvest Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Harvest Oil
For every potential investor in Harvest, whether a beginner or expert, Harvest Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Harvest Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Harvest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Harvest Oil's price trends.Harvest Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Harvest Oil pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Harvest Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harvest Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Harvest Oil Gas Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Harvest Oil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Harvest Oil's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Harvest Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Harvest Oil pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Harvest Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Harvest Oil pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Harvest Oil Gas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.56 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.56 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 100.0 |
Harvest Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Harvest Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Harvest Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting harvest pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8016 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.31 | |||
| Variance | 10.93 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Harvest Oil in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Harvest Oil's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Harvest Oil options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harvest Oil to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Harvest Pink Sheet analysis
When running Harvest Oil's price analysis, check to measure Harvest Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harvest Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Harvest Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harvest Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harvest Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harvest Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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