Harvest Oil OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HRST -  USA Stock  

USD 21.01  0.00  0.00%

Harvest OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Harvest Oil historical stock prices and determine the direction of Harvest Oil Gas's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Harvest Oil historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harvest Oil to cross-verify your projections.

Harvest O TC Stock Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Harvest Oil cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Harvest Oil's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Harvest Oil's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Harvest Oil is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Harvest Oil Gas value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Harvest Oil Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Harvest Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 21.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.041956, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.18. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Harvest OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Harvest Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Harvest Oil OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

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Harvest Oil Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Harvest Oil's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Harvest Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.52 and 22.12, respectively. We have considered Harvest Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.01
20th of October 2021
21.32
Expected Value
22.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Harvest Oil otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Harvest Oil otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.9394
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1669
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0081
SAESum of the absolute errors10.1815
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Harvest Oil Gas. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Harvest Oil. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Harvest Oil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harvest Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Harvest Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Harvest Oil in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
20.2121.0121.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
19.9620.7621.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
20.2520.6821.54
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Harvest Oil. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Harvest Oil's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Harvest Oil's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Harvest Oil Gas.

Other Forecasting Options for Harvest Oil

For every potential investor in Harvest, whether a beginner or expert, Harvest Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Harvest OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Harvest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Harvest Oil's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Harvest Oil otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Harvest Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harvest Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Harvest Oil Gas Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Harvest Oil's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Harvest Oil's current price.

Harvest Oil Risk Indicators

The analysis of Harvest Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Harvest Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Harvest Oil stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Harvest Oil without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harvest Oil to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Harvest Oil Gas information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Harvest Oil's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

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When running Harvest Oil Gas price analysis, check to measure Harvest Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harvest Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Harvest Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harvest Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harvest Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harvest Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Harvest Oil Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Harvest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Harvest Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Harvest Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Harvest Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Harvest Oil Gas underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Harvest Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Harvest Oil value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Harvest Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.