Hershey Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

HSY Stock  USD 194.50  0.79  0.41%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Hershey Co on the next trading day is expected to be 195.15 with a mean absolute deviation of  2.95  and the sum of the absolute errors of 159.09. Hershey Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hershey stock prices and determine the direction of Hershey Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hershey's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hershey's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hershey's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hershey fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hershey to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Hershey's Receivables Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is likely to rise to 1.38 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 4.02 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 220.2 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 2 B in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 Hershey Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hershey's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hershey's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hershey stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hershey's open interest, investors have to compare it to Hershey's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hershey is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hershey. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Hershey cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hershey's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hershey's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Hershey is based on an artificially constructed time series of Hershey daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Hershey 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Hershey Co on the next trading day is expected to be 195.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.95, mean absolute percentage error of 13.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 159.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hershey Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hershey's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hershey Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest HersheyHershey Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hershey Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hershey's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hershey's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 193.65 and 196.65, respectively. We have considered Hershey's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
194.50
193.65
Downside
195.15
Expected Value
196.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hershey stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hershey stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.85
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4129
MADMean absolute deviation2.9461
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0152
SAESum of the absolute errors159.09
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Hershey Co 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Hershey

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hershey. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hershey's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
192.97194.50196.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
192.28193.81195.34
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
183.81193.14202.48
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
219.53241.24267.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hershey. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hershey's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hershey's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hershey.

Other Forecasting Options for Hershey

For every potential investor in Hershey, whether a beginner or expert, Hershey's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hershey Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hershey. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hershey's price trends.

Hershey Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hershey stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hershey could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hershey by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hershey Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hershey's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hershey's current price.

Hershey Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hershey stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hershey shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hershey stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hershey Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hershey Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hershey's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hershey's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hershey stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Hershey Investors Sentiment

The influence of Hershey's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Hershey. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Hershey's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hershey. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hershey can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hershey Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Hershey's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Hershey's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Hershey's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Hershey.

Hershey Implied Volatility

    
  26.14  
Hershey's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hershey Co stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hershey's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hershey stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hershey's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hershey in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hershey's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hershey options trading.

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When determining whether Hershey offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Hershey's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Hershey Co Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Hershey Co Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hershey to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

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When running Hershey's price analysis, check to measure Hershey's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hershey is operating at the current time. Most of Hershey's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hershey's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hershey's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hershey to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hershey's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hershey. If investors know Hershey will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hershey listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.12)
Dividend Share
4.456
Earnings Share
9.07
Revenue Per Share
54.533
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.002
The market value of Hershey is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hershey that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hershey's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hershey's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hershey's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hershey's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hershey's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hershey is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hershey's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.