Heritage Commerce Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HTBK Stock | USD 8.36 0.06 0.72% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heritage Commerce Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 8.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.48. Heritage Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Heritage Commerce stock prices and determine the direction of Heritage Commerce Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Heritage Commerce's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Heritage Commerce's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Heritage Commerce's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Heritage Commerce fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Commerce to cross-verify your projections. Heritage |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Heritage Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Heritage Commerce's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Heritage Commerce's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Heritage Commerce stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Heritage Commerce's open interest, investors have to compare it to Heritage Commerce's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Heritage Commerce is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Heritage. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Heritage Commerce cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Heritage Commerce's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Heritage Commerce's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Heritage Commerce simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Heritage Commerce Corp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Heritage Commerce Corp prices get older. Heritage Commerce Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heritage Commerce Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 8.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Heritage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Heritage Commerce's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Heritage Commerce Stock Forecast Pattern
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Heritage Commerce Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Heritage Commerce's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Heritage Commerce's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.60 and 10.12, respectively. We have considered Heritage Commerce's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Heritage Commerce stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Heritage Commerce stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2869 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0115 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1062 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.48 |
Predictive Modules for Heritage Commerce
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heritage Commerce Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Heritage Commerce's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Heritage Commerce
For every potential investor in Heritage, whether a beginner or expert, Heritage Commerce's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Heritage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Heritage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Heritage Commerce's price trends.Heritage Commerce Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Heritage Commerce stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Heritage Commerce could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heritage Commerce by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Heritage Commerce Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Heritage Commerce's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Heritage Commerce's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Heritage Commerce Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Heritage Commerce stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Heritage Commerce shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Heritage Commerce stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Heritage Commerce Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Heritage Commerce Risk Indicators
The analysis of Heritage Commerce's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Heritage Commerce's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting heritage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Variance | 3.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Heritage Commerce in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Heritage Commerce's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Heritage Commerce options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Commerce to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Heritage Commerce Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Heritage Commerce's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Complementary Tools for Heritage Stock analysis
When running Heritage Commerce's price analysis, check to measure Heritage Commerce's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Heritage Commerce is operating at the current time. Most of Heritage Commerce's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Heritage Commerce's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Heritage Commerce's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Heritage Commerce to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Heritage Commerce's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heritage Commerce. If investors know Heritage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Heritage Commerce listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.36) | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 1.05 | Revenue Per Share 3.137 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.19) |
The market value of Heritage Commerce Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heritage Commerce's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heritage Commerce's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heritage Commerce's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heritage Commerce's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Commerce's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heritage Commerce is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Commerce's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.