Heat Biologics Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

HTBX -  USA Stock  

USD 4.22  0.27  6.01%

Heat Biologics Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Heat Biologics historical stock prices and determine the direction of Heat Biologics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Heat Biologics historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Heat Biologics naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Heat Biologics systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Heat Biologics fundamentals over time.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heat Biologics to cross-verify your projections.

Heat Biologics Stock Forecast 

 
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Asset Turnover is likely to rise to 0.0349 in 2021. Weighted Average Shares is likely to rise to about 17.2 M in 2021. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to rise to about 17.2 M in 2021.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-12-17 Heat Biologics Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Heat Biologics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Heat Biologics' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Heat Biologics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Heat Biologics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Heat Biologics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Heat Biologics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Heat Biologics. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Heat Biologics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Heat Biologics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Heat Biologics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Heat Biologics is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Heat Biologics Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Heat Biologics on the next trading day is expected to be 4.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.015299, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.75. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Heat Biologics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Heat Biologics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Heat Biologics Stock Forecast Pattern

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Heat Biologics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Heat Biologics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Heat Biologics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.14 and 6.57, respectively. We have considered Heat Biologics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.22
1st of December 2021
4.36
Expected Value
6.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Heat Biologics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Heat Biologics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.2548
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0511
MADMean absolute deviation0.0974
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0185
SAESum of the absolute errors5.745
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Heat Biologics price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Heat Biologics. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Heat Biologics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heat Biologics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Heat Biologics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Heat Biologics in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
2.294.426.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3.998.4410.57
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
4.224.454.68
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
15.0020.8033.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Heat Biologics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Heat Biologics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Heat Biologics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Heat Biologics.

Other Forecasting Options for Heat Biologics

For every potential investor in Heat Biologics, whether a beginner or expert, Heat Biologics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Heat Biologics Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Heat Biologics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Heat Biologics' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Heat Biologics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Heat Biologics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heat Biologics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Heat Biologics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Heat Biologics' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Heat Biologics' current price.

Heat Biologics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Heat Biologics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Heat Biologics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Heat Biologics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Heat Biologics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Heat Biologics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Heat Biologics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Heat Biologics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Heat Biologics stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Heat Biologics Investors Sentiment

The influence of Heat Biologics' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Heat Biologics. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Heat Biologics Implied Volatility

    
  167.8  
Heat Biologics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Heat Biologics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Heat Biologics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Heat Biologics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Heat Biologics' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Heat Biologics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Heat Biologics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Heat Biologics options trading.

Current Sentiment - HTBX

Heat Biologics Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Heat Biologics. What is your judgment towards investing in Heat Biologics? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heat Biologics to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Heat Biologics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Heat Biologics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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Is Heat Biologics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heat Biologics. If investors know Heat Biologics will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Heat Biologics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Heat Biologics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heat Biologics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heat Biologics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heat Biologics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heat Biologics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heat Biologics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heat Biologics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Heat Biologics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heat Biologics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.