Hyliion Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HYLN Stock  USD 1.76  0.08  4.76%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hyliion Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.76 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.09  and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.44. Hyliion Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hyliion Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Hyliion Holdings Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hyliion Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hyliion Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hyliion Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hyliion Holdings fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hyliion Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Hyliion Holdings' Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 29th of March 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.06, while Payables Turnover is likely to drop 1.23. . As of the 29th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 175 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (131.1 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Hyliion Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hyliion Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hyliion Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hyliion Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hyliion Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Hyliion Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hyliion Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hyliion. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Hyliion Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hyliion Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hyliion Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Hyliion Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hyliion Holdings Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hyliion Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hyliion Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 1.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hyliion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hyliion Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hyliion Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Hyliion HoldingsHyliion Holdings Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hyliion Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hyliion Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hyliion Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 8.27, respectively. We have considered Hyliion Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.76
1.76
Expected Value
8.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hyliion Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hyliion Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.428
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0878
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.069
SAESum of the absolute errors5.4412
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hyliion Holdings Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hyliion Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hyliion Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hyliion Holdings Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hyliion Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.101.918.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.678.18
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
1.832.012.23
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.00-0.210.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hyliion Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hyliion Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hyliion Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hyliion Holdings Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Hyliion Holdings

For every potential investor in Hyliion, whether a beginner or expert, Hyliion Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hyliion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hyliion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hyliion Holdings' price trends.

Hyliion Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hyliion Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hyliion Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hyliion Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hyliion Holdings Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hyliion Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hyliion Holdings' current price.

Hyliion Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hyliion Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hyliion Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hyliion Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hyliion Holdings Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hyliion Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hyliion Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hyliion Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hyliion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Hyliion Holdings Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Hyliion Holdings' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Hyliion Holdings Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Hyliion Holdings Corp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hyliion Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.

Complementary Tools for Hyliion Stock analysis

When running Hyliion Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Hyliion Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hyliion Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Hyliion Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hyliion Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hyliion Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hyliion Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hyliion Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hyliion Holdings. If investors know Hyliion will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hyliion Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.68)
Revenue Per Share
0.004
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(1.00)
Return On Assets
(0.20)
Return On Equity
(0.34)
The market value of Hyliion Holdings Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hyliion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hyliion Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hyliion Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hyliion Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hyliion Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hyliion Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hyliion Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hyliion Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.