Iaa Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

IAA -  USA Stock  

USD 61.34  0.86  1.42%

Iaa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Iaa historical stock prices and determine the direction of Iaa Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Iaa historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Iaa naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Iaa Inc systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Iaa fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Iaa to cross-verify your projections.

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As of August 2, 2021, Asset Turnover is expected to decline to 0.79. The current year Weighted Average Shares is expected to grow to about 147.5 M. The current year Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to grow to about 1.6 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-08-20 Iaa Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Iaa's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Iaa's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Iaa stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Iaa's open interest, investors have to compare it to Iaa's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Iaa is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Iaa. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Iaa cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Iaa's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Iaa's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Iaa is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Iaa Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Iaa Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Iaa Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 59.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74, mean absolute percentage error of 0.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.01. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Iaa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Iaa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Iaa Stock Forecast Pattern

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Iaa Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Iaa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Iaa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 57.44 and 61.07, respectively. We have considered Iaa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
61.34
2nd of August 2021
59.26
Expected Value
61.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Iaa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Iaa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.013
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7378
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors45.0063
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Iaa Inc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Iaa. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Iaa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Iaa Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Iaa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Iaa in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
58.6660.4862.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
57.7759.5961.41
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
51.4656.4961.53
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
65.0070.0874.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Iaa. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Iaa's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Iaa's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Iaa Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Iaa

For every potential investor in Iaa, whether a beginner or expert, Iaa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Iaa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Iaa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Iaa's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Iaa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Iaa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Iaa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Iaa Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Iaa's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Iaa's current price.

Iaa Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Iaa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Iaa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Iaa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Iaa Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Iaa Risk Indicators

The analysis of Iaa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Iaa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Iaa stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Iaa Investors Sentiment

The influence of Iaa's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Iaa. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - IAA

Iaa Inc Investor Sentiment

Greater number of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Iaa Inc. What is your judgment towards investing in Iaa Inc? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Iaa to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Iaa Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Iaa's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for Iaa Stock analysis

When running Iaa Inc price analysis, check to measure Iaa's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Iaa is operating at the current time. Most of Iaa's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Iaa's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Iaa's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Iaa to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Iaa Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Iaa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Iaa's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Iaa's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Iaa's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Iaa Inc underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Iaa's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Iaa value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Iaa's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.