Ideanomics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

IDEX Stock  USD 0.17  0.02  10.53%   
Ideanomics Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ideanomics historical stock prices and determine the direction of Ideanomics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Ideanomics historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Ideanomics naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Ideanomics systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ideanomics fundamentals over time.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ideanomics to cross-verify your projections.
  
Ideanomics Receivables Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Ideanomics reported Receivables Turnover of 3.96 in 2022. Accounts Payable Turnover is likely to rise to 20.00 in 2023, whereas PPandE Turnover is likely to drop 16.23 in 2023. . Weighted Average Shares is likely to rise to about 434.9 M in 2023. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to rise to about 434.9 M in 2023.

Open Interest Agains t 2023-02-17 Ideanomics Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ideanomics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Ideanomics' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Ideanomics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ideanomics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Ideanomics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ideanomics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ideanomics. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Ideanomics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ideanomics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ideanomics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Ideanomics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Ideanomics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Ideanomics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ideanomics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.010918, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00017724, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ideanomics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ideanomics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ideanomics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest IdeanomicsIdeanomics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ideanomics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ideanomics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ideanomics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0017 and 5.81, respectively. We have considered Ideanomics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 0.17
0.0017
Downside
0.16
Expected Value
5.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ideanomics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ideanomics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.4725
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0109
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0554
SAESum of the absolute errors0.666
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Ideanomics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Ideanomics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Ideanomics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ideanomics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ideanomics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ideanomics in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.010.175.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.071.377.03
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.160.190.22
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
5.005.005.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ideanomics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ideanomics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ideanomics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ideanomics.

Other Forecasting Options for Ideanomics

For every potential investor in Ideanomics, whether a beginner or expert, Ideanomics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ideanomics Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ideanomics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ideanomics' price trends.

Ideanomics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ideanomics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ideanomics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ideanomics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Blue Note MiningSSR MiningBlack Rock MiningTransportadora De GasHighGold MiningSilverSun TechnologiesIron Road LimitedAuQ Gold MiningAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ideanomics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ideanomics' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ideanomics' current price.

Ideanomics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ideanomics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ideanomics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Ideanomics stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Ideanomics Investors Sentiment

The influence of Ideanomics' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Ideanomics. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Ideanomics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Ideanomics. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ideanomics can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ideanomics. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Ideanomics' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Ideanomics' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Ideanomics' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Ideanomics.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ideanomics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ideanomics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ideanomics options trading.

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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ideanomics to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Ideanomics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ideanomics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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When running Ideanomics price analysis, check to measure Ideanomics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ideanomics is operating at the current time. Most of Ideanomics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ideanomics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ideanomics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ideanomics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ideanomics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ideanomics. If investors know Ideanomics will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ideanomics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
109.1 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.09) 
Return On Assets
(0.19) 
Return On Equity
(0.73) 
The market value of Ideanomics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ideanomics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ideanomics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ideanomics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ideanomics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ideanomics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ideanomics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ideanomics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ideanomics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.