IDX 30 Index Forecast - Naive Prediction
| IDX30 Index | 474.44 3.51 0.75% |
Most investors in IDX 30 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, index markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the IDX 30's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets IDX 30's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for IDX 30 is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of IDX 30 Jakarta value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. IDX 30 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of IDX 30 Jakarta on the next trading day is expected to be 462.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.19, mean absolute percentage error of 26.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 260.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IDX Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IDX 30's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
IDX 30 Index Forecast Pattern
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IDX 30 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IDX 30 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.2103 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.1948 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0084 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 260.0777 |
Predictive Modules for IDX 30
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IDX 30 Jakarta. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of IDX 30's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as IDX 30. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against IDX 30's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, IDX 30's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in IDX 30 Jakarta.
IDX 30 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with IDX 30 index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of IDX 30 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing IDX 30 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IDX 30 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IDX 30 index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IDX 30 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying IDX 30 index market strength indicators, traders can identify IDX 30 Jakarta entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
IDX 30 Risk Indicators
The analysis of IDX 30's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IDX 30's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting idx index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6333 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8319 | |||
| Variance | 0.692 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any index could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.