Immunocore Holdings Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| IMCR Stock | USD 57.31 1.49 2.67% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Immunocore Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 58.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.82. Immunocore Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Immunocore Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Immunocore Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Immunocore Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Immunocore Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Immunocore Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Immunocore Holdings fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Immunocore Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Immunocore |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Immunocore Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Immunocore Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Immunocore Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Immunocore Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Immunocore Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Immunocore Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Immunocore Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Immunocore. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Immunocore Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Immunocore Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Immunocore Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Immunocore Holdings - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Immunocore Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Immunocore Holdings price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Immunocore Holdings. Immunocore Holdings Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Immunocore Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 58.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23, mean absolute percentage error of 2.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Immunocore Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Immunocore Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Immunocore Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Immunocore Holdings | Immunocore Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Immunocore Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Immunocore Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Immunocore Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.94 and 60.62, respectively. We have considered Immunocore Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Immunocore Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Immunocore Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.08 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2303 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0192 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 73.8202 |
Predictive Modules for Immunocore Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Immunocore Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Immunocore Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Immunocore Holdings
For every potential investor in Immunocore, whether a beginner or expert, Immunocore Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Immunocore Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Immunocore. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Immunocore Holdings' price trends.View Immunocore Holdings Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Immunocore Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Immunocore Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Immunocore Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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Immunocore Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Immunocore Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Immunocore Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Immunocore Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Immunocore Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9015.99 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8613 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 57.11 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 57.18 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.94 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.49 |
Immunocore Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Immunocore Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Immunocore Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting immunocore stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Variance | 5.16 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Immunocore Holdings to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Immunocore Stock, please use our How to Invest in Immunocore Holdings guide.Note that the Immunocore Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Immunocore Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Immunocore Stock analysis
When running Immunocore Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Immunocore Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Immunocore Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Immunocore Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Immunocore Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Immunocore Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Immunocore Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Immunocore Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Immunocore Holdings. If investors know Immunocore will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Immunocore Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.68) | Earnings Share (1.40) | Revenue Per Share 5.102 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.122 | Return On Assets (0.07) |
The market value of Immunocore Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Immunocore that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Immunocore Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Immunocore Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Immunocore Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Immunocore Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Immunocore Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Immunocore Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Immunocore Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.