Impac Mortgage Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| IMHDelisted Stock | USD 0.06 0.01 9.23% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Impac Mortgage Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 0.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.92. Impac Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Impac Mortgage stock prices and determine the direction of Impac Mortgage Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Impac Mortgage's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in population. Impac |
Most investors in Impac Mortgage cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Impac Mortgage's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Impac Mortgage's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Impac Mortgage - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Impac Mortgage prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Impac Mortgage price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Impac Mortgage Holdings. Impac Mortgage Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Impac Mortgage Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 0.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0008, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Impac Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Impac Mortgage's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Impac Mortgage Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Impac Mortgage | Impac Mortgage Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Impac Mortgage stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Impac Mortgage stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0024 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0155 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1749 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.9152 |
Predictive Modules for Impac Mortgage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Impac Mortgage Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Impac Mortgage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
View Impac Mortgage Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Impac Mortgage Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Impac Mortgage stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Impac Mortgage shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Impac Mortgage stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Impac Mortgage Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0923 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.91 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.0579 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.057 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0056 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) |
Impac Mortgage Risk Indicators
The analysis of Impac Mortgage's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Impac Mortgage's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting impac stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 11.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 18.17 | |||
| Variance | 330.26 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in population. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Other Consideration for investing in Impac Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Impac Mortgage Holdings check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Impac Mortgage's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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