Intl Momentum Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

IMTM -  USA Etf  

USD 39.78  0.24  0.60%

Intl Momentum Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Intl Momentum historical stock prices and determine the direction of Intl Momentum Factor's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Intl Momentum historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Intl Momentum to cross-verify your projections.

Intl Momentum Etf Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Intl Momentum cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Intl Momentum's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Intl Momentum's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Intl Momentum is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Intl Momentum Factor value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Intl Momentum Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Intl Momentum Factor on the next trading day is expected to be 42.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.18. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Intl Momentum Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Intl Momentum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Intl Momentum Etf Forecast Pattern

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Intl Momentum Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Intl Momentum's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Intl Momentum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.00 and 43.05, respectively. We have considered Intl Momentum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
39.78
28th of October 2021
42.02
Expected Value
43.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Intl Momentum etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Intl Momentum etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria481.2283
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5412
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0142
SAESum of the absolute errors140.1778
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Intl Momentum Factor. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Intl Momentum. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Intl Momentum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intl Momentum Factor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Intl Momentum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Intl Momentum in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
38.7539.7840.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
37.9538.9840.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
37.3938.9740.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Intl Momentum. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Intl Momentum's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Intl Momentum's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Intl Momentum Factor.

Other Forecasting Options for Intl Momentum

For every potential investor in Intl Momentum, whether a beginner or expert, Intl Momentum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Intl Momentum Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Intl Momentum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Intl Momentum's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Intl Momentum etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Intl Momentum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Intl Momentum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Intl Momentum Factor Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Intl Momentum's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Intl Momentum's current price.

Intl Momentum Risk Indicators

The analysis of Intl Momentum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Intl Momentum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Intl Momentum stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Intl Momentum Investors Sentiment

The influence of Intl Momentum's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Intl Momentum. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - IMTM

Intl Momentum Factor Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are indifferent in their judgment towards investing in Intl Momentum Factor. What is your judgment towards investing in Intl Momentum Factor? Are you bullish or bearish?
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50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Please see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Intl Momentum to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Intl Momentum Factor information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Intl Momentum's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Intl Momentum Etf analysis

When running Intl Momentum Factor price analysis, check to measure Intl Momentum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Intl Momentum is operating at the current time. Most of Intl Momentum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Intl Momentum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Intl Momentum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Intl Momentum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Intl Momentum Factor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Intl Momentum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Intl Momentum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Intl Momentum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Intl Momentum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Intl Momentum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Intl Momentum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Intl Momentum value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Intl Momentum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.